The 2022-23 NBA season is here, which means it’s time to make our wagers on NBA over/under wins for the season. When looking at this season’s NBA odds, one of the most interesting bets is the New York Knicks over/under wins total. The team made some franchise-altering moves this offseason, like giving RJ Barrett a big extension and bringing in free-agent Jalen Brunson to run the point.
The Knicks also missed some opportunities to bring in some bigger-name players like Donovan Mitchell or to completely tear it down by trading Julius Randle. The Knicks’ moves did alter the team from last season. Whether these moves improved the team or didn’t go far enough remains to be seen.
Either way, the 2022 Knicks over/under wins total is right where the team ended last season. And it seems like the 2022-23 season is a crossroads for the Knicks, where they either go one way or the other. With this in mind, let’s look at the Knicks’ over/under win total and predict whether they will surpass it or fall short.
Here are the 2022 NBA over/under win total odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Knicks Over/Under Win Total NBA Odds
New York Knicks:
Over: 38.5 (-105)
Under: 38.5 (-115)
Why the Knicks will win 38.5 games
If the Knicks’ season goes as well as it could go, there is no reason the team can’t significantly surpass its NBA over/under wins total of 38.5 games.
Winning 37 last season left the Knicks in 11th place, six wins behind the Charlotte Hornets and the final play-in game. That win total from last season was with Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose running the point for the team. Those players, with a combined age of 64 last season, weren’t playoff-caliber guards.
This season, Jalen Brunson is at the point. Out from under the ball-dominant Luka Doncic in Dallas, there is a scenario where Brunson significantly improves on his 16.3 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.9 rebounds from last season.
In addition to Brunson’s possible improvement, the Knicks are a young team with several players who are breakout candidates this year. RJ Barrett leads the group who could take the leap, but Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin could make a move in their third seasons as well.
Finally, there’s Julius Randle. If he rediscovers his All-Star form from 2020-21, it makes the Knicks a 40-plus-win playoff team. And if he doesn’t, the Knicks could trade him off (with a package of picks) to a tanking-for-Victor-Wembanyama team and get a helpful player back in return.
If all that (or at least most of it) happens this season, the Knicks over/under wins total is too low, and they’ll hit the over, no problem.
Why the Knicks won’t win 38.5 games
After locking down Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and RJ Barrett in the two offseason, the worst-case scenario for the 2022-23 Knicks is that they don’t improve and actually win fewer games than in last year’s disappointing season.
The worst way the Knicks over/under win total could miss is if it becomes clear that the Knicks have wildly misevaluated the three players they paid the most money to in the last two years.
Maybe Randle just did play out of his mind in a contract year, and the Knicks got fooled into thinking that’s who he is. Maybe RJ Barrett is just a poor man’s Kris Middleton and his 3-point shooting and overall scoring numbers will never make him a No .1 option. And maybe Brunson has already reached his ceiling and truly is just an average NBA point guard.
Also, if things start going bad for the Knicks, with an excellent draft in 2023, the team may have a quick trigger on firing the coach and trading Randle or other key pieces to improve their draft capital.
If all that (or at least most of it) happens, there is no way the Knicks will hit the over on their NBA over/under wins this season. And when you look at the rest of the NBA odds, you’ll see nine Eastern Conference teams that are ahead of them in NBA over/under wins.
That means if just one team below them exceeds expectations and the rest of the conference more or less meets theirs, the Knicks will be right back where they were last season: In 11th place and under 38.5 wins.
Final Knicks win total prediction: Under 38.5 (-115)
The final Knicks over/under win total prediction is under 38.5 for the 2022-23 NBA season. The younger Knicks could and should make progress this season, but Randle being a one-year wonder and Brunson already hitting his peak in the league seem more likely than not. And when you factor in the very real tanking possibilities, under is the safer bet, which is why you have to lay a little more juice to take it.