The Indiana Pacers face off against the Milwaukee Bucks in a Central Division showdown tonight. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Pacers-Bucks prediction and pick.
The Pacers currently hold a record of 19-22 overall and 17-24 against the spread. Indiana is coming off a win over the Miami Heat in which they were 3.5 point underdogs.
The Bucks stand at 27-14 but are only 19-22 against the spread. Milwaukee is coming off a win over the San Antonio Spurs in which they failed to cover.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Pacers-Bucks odds.
NBA Odds: Pacers vs. Bucks Odds
Indiana Pacers +5.5 (-112)
Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (-108)
Over 232 Points (-110)
Under 232 Points (-110)
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
On paper, the Bucks hot start is intimidating. But take a closer look, and it's easy to see that Milwaukee isn't as red-hot as their record seems. They might be undefeated since the All-Star break, but they're only 2-3 against the spread.
The Pacers are coming off two impressive wins over the Heat, both in different styles. They blitzed Miami in Game one by dropping 137 points on an excellent defensive team, then beat the Heat at their own game by winning a defensive slugfest.
Post break, Indiana has been average on both ends of the floor. You usually know what you're going to get with this Pacers team on any given night: 110-115 points, and a respectable defensive effort.
Indiana is good at hanging around in ball games. In two months, they've lost by more than 10 points only three times.
The Pacers offense is one of the most balanced attacks in the league, which is much needed against a Bucks team that has multiple solid defenders.
Two Pacers average 20+ points, and a whopping eight average double-digit scoring, most in the league. Between Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris LeVert, the Pacers' leading scorer can change on a nightly basis.
Sabonis and Brogdon have been efficient, consistent scorers. The key for the Pacers tonight will be getting LeVert going.
Since his Pacers debut, the former Net has struggled from the field. He is averaging 14.0 points on 37% shooting and 31% from deep in five games.
LeVert has shown flashes of breaking out and finding his groove. If he manages to do so tonight, Indiana should be able to keep pace with Milwaukee's high-powered offense.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
While Indiana has kept games close recently, they have struggled against top teams.
Pacers have been given more than 5.5 points three times all season and were blown out in two of those games. One of those blowout losses came courtesy of the Bucks.
The one time these two teams met this season, the Bucks dominated the Pacers 130-110.
Indiana hasn't shown they can keep up with high-powered offensive teams. Against squads that average 115 or more points per game, the Pacers are a dreadful 1-9. The average margin of their nine losses is 10.8 points.
Milwaukee has the second highest-scoring offense in the league, putting up 119.5 points per game. 36.3% of these points have come from the three-point line, which is worrisome for the Pacers.
Indiana has been lit up from beyond the three-point line. They allow opponents to shoot 37.5% from three, the 9th highest figure in the NBA.
The last time these two teams played, the Bucks nailed 21 threes and shot 44% from deep. If Milwaukee's shooters come out hot, it's very unlikely Indiana keeps pace with them through the whole game.
Final Pacers-Bucks Prediction & Pick
The Bucks have scored 120+ points in four of their last five contests. I expect them to continue their offensive hot streak, and I can't see Indiana keeping pace. The Pacers have topped 120 points in only 21% of their games, and if the Bucks defense can get a string of stops, Milwaukee should surge ahead and never look back. At just 5.5 points, I'll take the Bucks spread and expect them to win by double-digits.
FINAL PACERS-BUCKS PREDICTION & PICK: MILWAUKEE BUCKS -5.5
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