The Houston Rockets (7-17) visit the San Antonio Spurs (6-18) on Thursday. Action tips off at 8:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Rockets-Spurs prediction and pick.
Houston has won two of their last three games yet still sit in 14th place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are 12-11 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone over. San Antonio has lost 11 straight games to drop them to last place in the West. The Spurs are 9-15 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of four meetings between the division foes. San Antonio took the series, three games to one last season.
Here are the Rockets-Spurs NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Rockets-Spurs Odds
Houston Rockets: -1.5 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 230 (-112)
Under: 230 (-108)
Why The Rockets Could Cover The Spread
Houston has been one of the worst teams in basketball this season due largely to their inept offensive and defensive outputs. The Rockets rank 22nd in scoring and 25th in offensive efficiency. Things get worse on the defensive end of the floor where they rank 28th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency. The one area Houston excels is rebounding. The Rockets are maniacal on the glass, ranking third in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Notably, guard Kevin Porter Jr. is listed as questionable for tonight's game.
In what could be the ugliest game of the season thus far, the Rockets have a great chance to cover against a Spurs team that's lost 11 straight thanks in large part to leading scorer Jalen Green. Last year's second-overall pick is a skilled scorer despite his struggles with efficiency. For the season, Green averages 21.6 PPG on 42% shooting from the field and 32% from three. Green contributes outside of the scoring department as well, averaging 4.0 RPG and 4.0 APG. While he is inconsistent, Green is a proven scorer already and has the ability to completely take over a game. Houston is 5-2 in the seven games Green has scored at least 27 points. Matched up with the worst defense in the league, Green's scoring correlation to Houston's winning is something to keep in mind when making a Rockets-Spurs prediction.
The biggest advantage Houston has over San Antonio comes on the glass. The Rockets are a dominant rebounding team and that starts first and foremost with center Alperen Sengun. Sengun is in the midst of a breakout season as he's taken full advantage of his starting role. Sengun averages 14.9 PPG and 8.6 RPG while shooting 56% from the floor. He's also made his presence known on defense where he averages a block per game. The Spurs are especially weak down low – setting Sengun up for a big performance tonight.
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
While Houston's performance has been bad, San Antonio's has somehow been worse. They are arguably the worst all-around team in the NBA. The Spurs struggle on offense, ranking 26th in scoring and last in offensive efficiency. It's even worse on the defensive end where they rank last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They don't do themselves any favors on the glass either, ranking 23rd in rebound differential and 25th in rebound rate. The Spurs will notably be without Jakob Poeltl and Jeremy Sochan tonight, while Devin Vassell is questionable.
After a blazing hot start, the Spurs have quickly flipped the switch and are now in full “tank” mode. That being said, they have a wonderful opportunity to snap an 11-game losing streak tonight against one of the league's worst defenses. That bodes well for forward Keldon Johnson. Johnson has quietly taken a big step forward this season. He averages 20.4 PPG and 5.1 RPG. Johnson is an efficient scorer, however, as he shoots just 39% from the floor and 35% from three.
His efficiency (or lack thereof) has directly correlated with San Antonio's success. The Spurs started the season 6-6. In those 12 games, Johnson averaged 23.6 PPG on 46% shooting. During their recent losing streak, Johnson's numbers have dipped down to just 16.5 PPG on 32% shooting. He's in a nice position for a bounce back and if he's able to San Antonio should have a solid chance to cover.
Final Rockets-Spurs Prediction & Pick
In a matchup between the West's two worst teams, I give a slight edge to Houston given San Antonio's struggles of late. Jalen Green should have his way with the Spurs' defense and Houston should dominate down low. That being said, if Keldon Johnson starts the game hot savvy betters could take advantage of San Antonio's track record of success in games he performs well in.
Final Rockets-Spurs Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets -1.5 (-110)
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