The San Antonio Spurs (3-1) take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2) in what will be the second straight matchup between the two teams. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Spurs-Timberwolves prediction and pick.
San Antonio is a surprising 3-1 after an opening week that saw them drop the opener to the Hornets but bounce back to win three straight over the Pacers, 76ers, and Timberwolves. The Spurs are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as they've found similar cover success as last year (53.1%). Two of San Antonio's four games have gone – nearly identical to last year's 49.4% over percentage.
Minnesota is 2-2 after an opening week that saw them drop games to the Jazz and Spurs but take victory over the Thunder twice. The Timberwolves are just 1-3 ATS this season after covering 52.9% of games last year. Three of Minnesota's four games have gone under – a flip from last year's heavy-over campaign (58.4%).
The Timberwolves won all three matchups between the two teams last season by margins of 25, 10, and six. Two of the three matchups went over tonight's 231-point total. San Antonio did cover the +8.5-point line in their last matchup with Minnesota in a game that saw just 221 total points.
Here are the Spurs-Timberwolves NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Spurs-Timberwolves Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +9 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves: -9 (-110)
Over: 234.5 (-112)
Under: 234.5 (-108)
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
The Spurs handled the Timberwolves in their most recent matchup despite shooting just 32% from beyond the arc. San Antonio has a number of capable shooters on the roster who are bound to bounce back from the poor showing. Keldon Johnson (1-6) and Tyus Jones (1-4) are both due for bounce-back games despite the Timberwolves' stingy defense. Johnson in particular could be in for a big performance.
The 6'5″ wing has taken a huge step given San Antonio's thin roster. After averaging 17 PPG last year, he's shot up to over 20 PPG this season. Johnson shot nearly 40% from three last season and is fully capable of improving on this year's 36.7%. He's shown the ability to light up Minnesota (34 points in a March meeting last season) and has developed into the de-facto number-one option for the Spurs this season.
Outside of Johnson, the Spurs have a balanced offensive attack. Four other players average over 10 points per game as the Spurs have proven much of the NBA media wrong about their team in the early going. A key name to watch for the Spurs is center Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl has taken a big step forward in his second season as a full-time starter. Through four games, Poeltl is averaging 15.5 PPG and 10.8 APG. Those are solid numbers for any big man but where Poeltl really shines is through his playmaking. Poeltl is fifth among centers in assists per game with 3.5. In the pass-heavy Spurs offense, his ability to make the right pass and find the open man could be huge against the Timberwolves' talented frontcourt. Poeltl recorded 14 points and 14 rebounds in their last meeting and could be a major factor when making a Spurs-Timberwolves prediction.
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
With the addition of three-time Defensive Player of the Year, it was an easy bet that Minnesota would improve defensively. However, in the early goings, the Timberwolves have nearly an identical defensive rating as last season (111 in 2021-22, 108.7 this year). While he has helped the Timberwolves on defense, his major contributions have come on the glass. Gobert is averaging 15.2 rebounds per game for the league's top rebounding team. That is a major improvement on last year when Minnesota was 16th in rebounding.
While Gobert has sparked a huge improvement on the glass, he's left the scoring to the young duo of Karl Towns and Anthony Edwards. Both players are averaging over 20 points per game, although they haven't shot particularly well just yet. Towns, in particular, has been disappointing in that regard. A career 39.6% shooter from three, the big man has struggled to the tune of 31.8%. Perhaps the addition of Gobert has limited his quality looks from deep but it is only a matter of time before he gets his shooting stroke back.
As for Edwards, he's due for a bounce-back performance after going 3-15 and scoring just nine points in the teams' last meeting. Edwards shot 36% from three last season and is bound to improve on his current 26% mark. The Spurs have struggled to defend opposing wings and if Edwards is able to turn it around tonight they should be able to cover in a home revenge game.
Final Spurs-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick
With the two teams placing 2nd and 5th in pace, I see this being a high-scoring affair. The last matchup between them resulted in just 221 points despite each team shooting under 33% from three. Expect a regression to more standard shooting numbers tonight.
Final Spurs-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Over 234.5 (-112)
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