The Philadelphia 76ers will meet the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in South Florida. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a 76ers-Heat prediction and pick.
The 76ers defeated the Toronto Raptors 132-97 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals to close the series in six games. Joel Embiid led the way for Philadelphia with 33 points and 10 rebounds. Tyrese Maxey contributed with 25 points, including five makes from beyond the arc. James Harden added 22 points with 15 assists. Additionally, Tobias Harris generated 19 points with 11 rebounds.
However, the Sixers took a monumental hit late in the game when Embiid suffered a right orbital fracture and will sit out for the first chunk of the second-round series. The Sixers cannot fully replace Embiid's production, and Doc Rivers will likely try multiple options at center when he's out.
The Heat have been waiting for nearly a week for this series to start, as they polished off the Atlanta Hawks in five games. Now, the Heat welcome the Sixers into their home and get ready to face a Philadelphia team without its top star. The Heat had to deal with injuries in their series, as Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler sat out for Game 5.
However, Victor Oladipo and Bam Adebayo took the reins and led the Heat to a series-clinching victory. Oladipo scored 23 points, shooting 8-of-16 from the field. Adebayo contributed 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting. Additionally, Tyler Herro came off the bench to score 16 points. The Heat enter this series as one of the best defensive teams in the league and are ready to clamp down on the Sixers as they attempt to navigate without Embiid.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the 76ers-Heat odds for Game 1 and the series.
NBA Playoffs Odds: 76ers-Heat Odds
76ers: +7.5 (-110) for Game 1, +240 for series
Heat: -7.5 (-110) for Game 1, -300 for series
Over: 208.5 (-110)
Under: 208.5 (-110)
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Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia will need all hands on deck for this game. Harden needs to consistently produce. Thus, he must take the reins and lead the Sixers in this difficult stretch in which Embiid could miss at least three games. Harden must convert on his shots, including his attempts from beyond the arc. Also, the Sixers will need Maxey and Harris to contribute in a big way as well. Maxey has been a revelation in Year 2 for Philly, while Harris has been a bit more up and down. Philly will need both with no Embiid.
The Sixers will need help in the rebounding department. DeAndre Jordan has not been effective in Philly, but Rivers could turn to him for a big body. The Pauls (Reed and Millsap) will likely also see minutes and must help on the glass. In addition to that, the Sixers need to cover all angles and form a plan to get past Miami's stonewall defense. Losing their big-man presence will hurt the Sixers and force them to take a new approach over Game 1 and beyond.
The Sixers will cover the spread if Harden, Maxey, and Harris can contribute and fill the void caused by Embiid's injury. Additionally, Philadelphia must win the battle on the boards while establishing a plan to get past Miami's vaunted defense.
Miami's own injury issues could play a factor here as well. Lowry is still out to start this series, while Butler, Herro, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris and Caleb Martin are all questionable.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Even though Lowry is out, the assumption here is that most of the Heat's players who are questionable will play. If that is indeed the case, it comes down to capitalizing on an opportunity and forcing Philadelphia to scramble. The Heat split the season series with the 76ers this season, winning one game at home and on the road.
Of course, both home games featured Embiid competing against them. The Heat won one of their home games, 99-82, showcasing unrelenting defensive ability. Miami was fourth in total defense during the regular season and fifth in half-court defense. The Heat held the Sixers to under 100 points twice this season and will look to do so again.
Offensively, Butler was dominant before missing Game 5 against Atlanta, so the Heat are hoping he will be back. Though it is worth noting that Oladipo filled in admirably after not playing much, so he could do so again if needed. Herro is a pivotal piece off the bench and makes plays happen. Additionally, he is part of a squad that ranked the best in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage during the regular season. Turnovers are something the Heat have to control, as they ranked 25th during the regular season.
The Heat will cover the spread if they can clamp down defensively and stop the shorthanded Sixers from scoring on them. In addition to that, Miami will cover if most of these top players are healthy can can produce. The Heat will be fine if they can convert on their 3-point shots and execute in clutch time.
Final 76ers-Heat Prediction & Pick
It will be a difficult showdown for the Sixers. Embiid is a special player, so not having him will hurt them. Expect the Heat to pounce on this and pound the Sixers into the ground, winning and covering.
Looking ahead to the entire series, it will be tough for Philly to win against this talented and disciplined Miami squad given the injury to Embiid. Look for the Heat to win in five games, even with some of their own health issues.
Final 76ers-Heat Prediction & Pick: Heat -7.5 (-110) for Game 1, -300 for series
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