The NBA Playoffs continue on Wednesday as the Miami Heat (44-38) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) for the fifth game in the Eastern Conference first round. Action tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET. Miami took a 3-1 advantage thanks to their 119-114 win in game four. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Bucks prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Heat-Bucks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Bucks Odds
Miami Heat: +11 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks: -11 (-110)
Over: 219.5 (-110)
Under: 219.5 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. Bucks
TV: NBA TV, Bally Sun, Bally WI
Stream: NBA TV
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET/ 6:30 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
ATS Record: 34-51-3 (40%)
Over Record: 45-43 (51%)
Miami sits in an incredible position to win an opening-round series against the No. 1 overall seed in just the fifth game of the series. After stealing game one in Milwaukee, the Heat defended their home court with two huge wins in games three and four. Despite looking down for the count in their play-in loss to the Hawks, the Heat find themselves just one win away from the next round. That being said, Miami still enters game five as a double-digit underdog in Milwaukee. Although they played well in their three wins, Miami's blowout loss in game two still sits in the back of many people's minds. As a result, they need to keep up their strong defense and get another monster game from Jimmy Butler if they want to keep things close in game five.
Jimmy Butler output one of the greatest single games in NBA Playoff history in game four. Butler scored 56 points – the fourth-highest scoring game in playoff history – in their game four win. He set the franchise record for playoff points in addition to his own career best. Those 56 came via a highly-efficient 19/28 shooting night. The notoriously inside-the-arc Butler drained three threes in the process – the first time he's drained three triples since October 2022. Milwaukee simply had no answer for Butler – particularly down the stretch. He got to the line at will, draining 15/18 free throws. While another 50-burger from Butler seems farfetched, it certainly remains in the equation. He's now scored 35, 25, 30, and 56 in their four games against the Bucks – setting him up for another strong performance in game five.
Big man Bam Adebayo serves as the X-factor for Miami in game five. The 25-year-old has had a productive series for the Heat with 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG. That being said, those numbers remain far from his season averages. Bam averaged 20.4 PPG and 9.2 RPG during the regular season. Additionally, he was just as productive in four matchups with the Bucks during the regular season with 19.5 PPG and 10.8 RPG. While the Heat will ride Butler until the wheels fall off, additional production from Bam would go a long way in ensuring they cover game five. That remains especially true considering the massive size advantage Milwaukee continues to hold over them.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
ATS Record: 44-36-6 (55%)
Over Record: 46-40 (54%)
Milwaukee finds itself on the brink of elimination after dropping two games in Miami. The Bucks looked to be in full control of game four before Jimmy Butler went nuclear on them. As a result, Milwaukee now must win three straight games to avoid being eliminated. That being said, the Bucks get to return home for game five – a place they excelled throughout the season. Still, they come in as double-digit favorites despite being down 3-1 in the series. Consequently, the Bucks need to figure things out fast on both sides of the ball if they want to cover.
Despite the game-four loss, Milwaukee at least saw the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis excelled despite the injury. He amassed his third career playoff triple-double with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists. Milwaukee looked completely lost without him on the floor as he finished +1 in his 38 minutes. While Giannis' injury certainly leaves cause for concern, his 38 minutes in game four should give betters some confidence in him going forward.
If Milwaukee wants to cover and have any hope of coming back in the series they need Jrue Holiday to play better. Holiday output one of the best regular seasons of his career but has struggled in the playoffs. He shot a measly 6/19 in game four and has been quiet aside from a game two outburst.
Final Heat-Bucks Prediction & Pick
Despite Miami's heroics in game four, this feels like a get-right game for the Bucks. Although they face an uphill battle in winning the series outright, they should cruise in game five.
Final Heat-Bucks Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -11 (-110)
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