Every single NBA draftee has some level of expectation about them. Most of the time, it's relative to their draft placement; the top 3 picks would usually have the franchise cornerstone expectations, the rest of the lottery might be expected to develop into viable starters, and so on. That's why there are always going to be draft busts who don't live up to their set expectations; the likes of Kwame Brown, Greg Oden, and Anthony Bennett come to mind.
Likewise, there will always be players who fall to the other side of the spectrum: rookies who blew all expectations out of the water with their unprecedentedly good 1st years in the league. It doesn't have to be low draft picks who turned into valuable pieces for their respective teams, either. These can also include esteemed rookies who proved to be even better than their already-high stock suggested.
In this piece, we examine the most unexpectedly-spectacular rookie seasons of recent times. We will be reviewing each player's rookie year, as well as what they've gone on to accomplish since. To reiterate, any recently-drafted player who went above and beyond their draft expectations can qualify for this list. As for going “above and beyond”, we will be considering their rookie year statistics and accolades in relation to their draft placement, player comparisons, and amateur career statistics and achievements.
With that, let's get into the NBA rookies that blew us all away.
Malcolm Brogdon
We start with the unlikely 2017 NBA Rookie of the Year in Malcolm Brogdon.
The now-Indiana Pacer has had quite the career considering where he started. Brogdon was taken in the 2nd round by the Milwaukee Bucks with the 36th pick after a relatively successful college career. He played in all four of his eligible playing years for the Virginia University Cavaliers, winning a smattering of individual awards in the process. In his collegiate stint, he managed to bag himself 1 ACC Player of the Year award, 1 ACC Defensive Player of the Year award, 2 Consensus All-American Team selections, 3 All-ACC Team selections, 3 All-ACC Defensive Team selections.
However, Brogdon was generally overlooked by scouts due to his rather unremarkable game, despite his lengthy accolade list. It doesn't help that long lists of collegiate accolades translate to long collegiate careers, and hence less potential and room to grow as NBA players.
His draft comparisons were the likes of Keith Bogans, a career-6.3 PPG swingman, and Jayson Granger, an undrafted Uruguayan combo guard who only got as far as the Summer League in terms of his NBA career. Rather unflattering comparisons, aren't they?
It would turn out way, way, better than anyone expected for the 6'5” guard. His rookie season brought about averages of 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.1 steals. He was a big part of the Milwaukee Bucks' Playoff run as he eventually worked his way into the starting five. Brogdon has cemented himself in Bucks history, being the first second-rounder to win Rookie of the Year since 1965. He is also only the second Milwaukee Buck to win the award, the first being Kareem Abdul-Jabbar himself.
Brogdon only got better as time went by. He is currently averaging around 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists for his career. He just had his best season last year, with stats of 16.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 7.1 assists a game; he was even an early tip to be an All-Star. It doesn't look like his stats will just consolidate, either; he is currently putting up a stat line of 22-4-7 this NBA season. The Pacer continues to exceed expectations as he did in his first year in the league.
Kyle Kuzma
Yes, he's had his fair share of criticism all through these years. He's had to see his teammates (mostly) excel after getting traded away from the bright lights of Los Angeles. while he remains under the media's scrutiny. Nevertheless, we can't deny that Kyle Kuzma has produced one of the most surprisingly great rookie seasons of recent times.
2017's Draft Class was one of the most memorable of the past decade. The class had it all: high-profile busts, superstar-potential players, and Lonzo Ball, all of which dominated the media. A young Kyle Kuzma, fresh off of a rather low-key 3-year stint with the University of Utah, hence went under the radar. After getting drafted 27th overall by the Brooklyn Nets, he was simply an accessory to the trade which brought Brook Lopez to the Los Angeles Lakers for D'Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov.
Kuzma unexpectedly shone pretty early on, being the Lakers' top scorer in their Summer League Championship run with 21.1 points per contest. He followed this up with several 15 and 20-point performances off the bench to start the season, eventually forcing himself into the starting lineup. Kuz continued to make noise as he established himself as one of the best rookies of the class, getting favorable comparisons to even 3rd overall pick Jayson Tatum. He ended up with First Team All-Rookie honors after averaging a cool 16.1 points per game as one of the Lakers' joint-top scorers.
After his debut season, wherein he placed 4th in Rookie of the Year voting, he put up a career-high 18.7 PPG on 45.6% shooting. Unfortunately, he is yet to improve on his first two seasons in the NBA; Kuzma has averaged only about 12.1 points per game on 43% shooting from the field since. Granted, he has had to give up a lot of shots due to the arrivals of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Still, it wouldn't hurt for him to be a more reliable and efficient outside threat to provide more spacing.
Kendrick Nunn
A lot of factors certainly went right for the 2019-20 Miami Heat, and the signing of an undrafted Kendrick Nunn was certainly one of those.
The point guard had a tumultuous college career prior to going undrafted. He spent three quiet years with the University of Illinois before getting dismissed due to charges of domestic battery. He would, however, resurrect his collegiate career a year later after transferring to Oakland University. Nunn turned into a dynamic scorer with the Golden Grizzlies, putting up almost 26 points per contest (compared to the 8.6 he averaged in Illinois).
Before signing with the Miami Heat, he was signed by the Golden State Warriors with an Exhibit 10 contract to be sent down to the Santa Cruz Warriors, their G-League affiliate. This is where things began to look up for Nunn, who averaged a decent 19.3 points in 49 games.
Nunn would then go on to sign for the Miami Heat to play what would be his official rookie year. He immediately drew the media's attention after scoring 40 points in a preseason game against the Houston Rockets. This wasn't just a one-off, either; the Chicago native would go on to average an absurd 22.3 points through his first three games in the league as the team's starting point guard. He also broke the record for most points by an undrafted player in five games with 112. Multiple Rookie of the Month awards and 30+ point performances later, and Nunn was receiving First Team All-Rookie honors and finishing second in NBA Rookie of the Year voting.
Despite averaging 15.3 points in the 2020-21 regular season, Nunn was relegated to the bench in favor of veteran point guard Goran Dragić in the Playoffs. He was also getting fewer minutes and DNPs as the Playoffs progressed until Dragić was sidelined with a foot injury. For the 2020-21 season, he has started every game on the bench and is averaging around 11 points on 47% efficiency. A far cry from his brilliant rookie year, sure, but it can hardly be overstated that the former G-League standout has already exceeded expectations.
Donovan Mitchell
There's something about that 13th overall NBA Draft pick that tends to produce draft steals. Specifically, it tends to produce these dynamic, sweet-shooting scorers at the two-guard position. Tyler Herro, Devin Booker, Zach LaVine, and the late, great Kobe Bryant were all products of the 13th overall pick. Donovan Mitchell is yet another one of these brilliant 13th overall selections that so many teams regret missing out on.
To be fair to the GMs that passed on Mitchell, he didn't look like Dwyane Wade 2.0 in college; in fact, scouts compared him instead to Norman Powell going into the Draft. The 6'2” guard averaged around 12 points on 41.8% shooting while playing for the University of Louisville. His subpar shooting splits and over-reliance on contested midrange jumpers might have put scouts off, despite his undeniable physical gifts and athletic ability. He fell to the Denver Nuggets' 13th pick, getting selected behind the likes of Josh Jackson, Frank Ntilikina, and Luke Kennard. Even the Nuggets didn't value him more than Trey Lyles and a late first-round pick, which is why he found himself getting traded to the Utah Jazz in Draft Night.
The Jazz clearly saw something in Mitchell, but I bet even they didn't expect the rookie to be their main go-to guy right away. Mitchell showed an unexpected scoring prowess right out of the gate, scoring a tournament-high 37 points in the NBA Summer League against the Memphis Grizzlies. Then, just two months into his rookie season, he dropped a massive 41 points against the New Orleans Pelicans. It only got better for Mitchell, finishing the season with averages of 20.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. He would come second in Rookie of the Year voting and a First Team All-Rookie berth. However, the rookie STILL wasn't finished making noise.
Mitchell and his Jazz would go on to eliminate the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the Playoffs. That Thunder team, lest anyone forget, consisted of the big three of Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, and Paul George, all of whom got shown up by the high-flying Mitchell. Spyda put up almost 30 points for the series, scoring a Playoff-high 38 markers in the series-clinching game.
Mitchell is now a 1x NBA All-Star and has since continued his upward trajectory.
Isaiah Thomas
The Sacramento Kings acquired two point guards in the talent-laden 2011 Draft:
One was Jimmer Fredette, a lethal sharpshooter known for his tremendous scoring ability and range, picked 10th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks and traded for by the Kings. The other was 5'9” Isaiah Thomas out of the University of Washington, taken with the very last pick of the draft.
Little did the Kings know that it would be the latter who would go on to average almost 30 points in a season and end up in MVP conversations.
Even before Isaiah Thomas had his prime, borderline-MVP candidate years with the Boston Celtics, he was already turning heads and surprising everyone in just his rookie year with Sacramento. Thomas averaged almost 20 points in his first five games as the team's starting point guard, after pipping the more highly-touted Fredette to the spot. He would go on to win the Western Conference Rookie of the Month award twice, making him the only 6oth overall pick to ever win this award. After averaging 11.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, Thomas was named to the All-Rookie Second Team and come seventh in Rookie of the Year voting.
IT has gone on to be the most successful 60th overall pick in league history. He's been an All-Star twice and has been named to the All-NBA Second Team once, all achieved with the Boston Celtics.
However, it would all go south for Thomas after getting traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Kyrie Irving. Overall, he's been on 5 teams since and has never nailed down a starter or even a bench spot for any of them. The King of the Fourth has most recently been waived by the Los Angeles Clippers and has since been without an NBA team.
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