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Tuesday night's primetime slot is not short of drama for TNT, the channel that will televise a notable tilt between the visiting Denver Nuggets and the host Golden State Warriors, battling for a potential tiebreaker that could decide the top seed in the Western Conference.
Yet this matchup will decide much more than who will have home court advantage through the first three rounds of playoff action, but also set a chain reaction to the rest of the conference as to how these last few regular season games can prove vital to their postseason lives.
Why it's vital for the Nuggets
Denver dealt the first blow early in the season, becoming the first team to defeat the Warriors, only three games in — snatching a 100-98 win. Ever since, the Nuggets have been pegged as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the West, managing to stay in the top two spots of a ruthless conference that has seen some of the best teams suffer their share of struggles.
Yet they lost their next encounter with the Warriors in grand fashion, as the reigning champions set out to prove a point with a 142-111 win at the Pepsi Center to even affairs. The Warriors struck again in March, delivering a 122-105 win thanks to Klay Thompson's 39 points.
A win over Golden State tonight would tie the series at 2-2 and the Nuggets could guarantee the top seed in case of a tie at the end of the season due to their formidable 31-7 home record, second only to the league leading Milwaukee Bucks (32-6 home record).
The win would mean a lot more for Denver, given that they're barely above .500 on the road (20-18) this season, something that could put them in dangerous waters in the postseason.
The Nuggets have scored 100 points or less in four of their last five games and will need to find their offense quickly against a high-octane scoring team like the Warriors, who lead the conference in points per game (117.7) and point differential (plus-6.2).
Why it matters to the Warriors
Head coach Steve Kerr has been clear of his intent to pursue the top seed in the conference, fully aware of how the lack of home court advantage played a role in a seven-game Western Conference Finals against the Houston Rockets last season.
Golden State has had a shaky season, going beyond how they battled through their initial rough patch at the start of the season. Since closing out a 16-2 stretch prior to the All-Star break, the Warriors are only 11-8 and have yet to win more than two straight games since a five-game winning streak before losing to the Portland Trail Blazers on Feb. 13.
The Warriors have proven to have the tools to dismantle this Nuggets team, but have failed to shown the consistency and killer mentality to put teams away early as they did during their dominant runs in prior years.
For what it's worth, Golden State has managed to incorporate a better-working strategy using Curry as the featured scorer and making Durant a lower-volume, but equally valuable playmaker (32 assists in the last four games).
Durant has actually been splendid in the last week, shooting 83 percent or more in three of the last four games — no, this is not a typo.
Discounting a woeful shooting night against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Durant has connected on 22-of-24 shooting attempts in games against the Detroit Pistons, the Memphis Grizzlies, and most-recently the Charlotte Hornets.
Why it matters to the rest of the Western Conference
Unlike the East, which is segmented by clear tiers (No. 1 and No. 2 seed, 3-through-5, and 6-through-8), the West only has a meager 8.5 games' difference between the first and eighth seed — a testament to the conference's brutal strength.
Now that all teams have already locked down a playoff spot, most contenders won't be afforded the luxury of resting players down the stretch, fighting tooth and nail for every advantage until the very last game of the 82-game season.
The Portland Trail Blazers (49-28) for one, could wind up leapfrogging the Nuggets if the latter lose against the Warriors tonight and also lose a home-and-away against the third-seeded Blazers at the end of this week, causing a complete reversal of fortune that would have the Nuggets slip out of the top two spots for the first time this season.
The Rockets (49-28), who are seeded right under the Blazers due to a tiebreaker, have three of their last five games on the road against strong teams in the Sacramento Kings, L.A. Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Utah Jazz and the Clippers will fight for the fifth spot in the conference, a war that will likely come down to the last game of the regular season, when these two teams will face each other.
The Thunder have seen a precipitous fall from grace, slipping to eighth place after losing seven of their last 10 games. They could have a tough time staving off a veteran San Antonio Spurs team that is in line for its 22nd consecutive playoff appearance.
This Nuggets-Warriors game is expected to have a playoff-like atmosphere, one the rest of the conference is bound to emulate as these last few games will determine the matchups to come in mid-April and the teams' ultimate fate in a murderers' row that is the Western Conference.
It's sure to say that the West will experience playoff-level basketball weeks before the postseason starts, given the seeding and matchup implications — something that will only make the race to the top all the more interesting.
