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As the NBA approaches what's shaping up to be a crazy free agency, the Golden State Warriors are once again at the center of a hurricane of blockbuster trade rumors. With the Dubs looking to retool around Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler following an unceremonious second-round playoff exit, they enter the offseason with a lot of needs to address. But the course of the Warriors' offseason may very well rest in the hands of maybe the most polarizing player they've ever had: Jonathan Kuminga.
On 95.7 The Game's Willard and Dibs show, ESPN's front office insider Bobby Marks shared why Kuminga is the all-important domino to the Warriors' pathway to adding new talent to their roster.
“It all depends on Kuminga. He basically controls free agency in Golden State. If they sign him to a contract and bring him back, then that's really it as far as what they can do in the offseason.” Marks said. “They might have one of their smaller exceptions and everything here. And then you look at the rest of the roster, and it's like, okay, is it [Buddy] Hield? Is it Brandin [Podziemski]? Is it some of those other players? Guys that are not making that much money.”
Other than Kuminga, the Warriors don't have a mid-sized salary to bring in a player around the $15-20 million level. They could certainly aggregate their smaller salaries together as Marks posited. But that weakens their already shallow depth and forces the Warriors to rely on minimum-level players.
Trade-wise, the Dubs are limited unless they have the appetite to put Draymond Green or even Butler on the table. The Dubs have shown no indication they'd be willing to go that far. These factors essentially have the Warriors hamstrung by Kuminga's whims.
All of the cards Kuminga holds and what that means for the Warriors
The reporting around what will happen with Kuminga and the Warriors is all over the place. It feels like anything and everything is on the table for the two parties. But according to Marks, once Kuminga receives the $7.9 million qualifying offer on June 29th, he's owed at the bare minimum thanks to his restricted free agent status, four things can happen:
Option A: Kuminga re-signs with Golden State at an agreed-upon number and years.
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Option B: Kuminga signs an offer sheet with a team with salary room. The Warriors have the right to match any offer.
Option C: The Warriors and Kuminga organize a sign-and-trade. Only 50% of his salary counts as outgoing salary for matching purposes.
Option D: Kuminga signs the 1-year qualifying offer and becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
These four options trickled down into several causes and effects for the Warriors' free agency and team-building plans. But more scenarios involve Kuminga returning to the Dubs than there are not. And a big part of that stems from the idea that the Warriors don't want to lose him for nothing.
Because of his RFA label, the Dubs can easily keep Kuminga if they choose to do so. Unless the Brooklyn Nets offer him the $25-30 million Kuminga reportedly covets, it makes much more sense for the Warriors to retain the asset and wait until December, when they are allowed to trade him again. From a cold and indifferent front office standpoint, the Warriors can dictate Kuminga's fate if they determine it's in their best interest from a roster-building standpoint.
And keeping Kuminga might be the ceiling of things the Warriors can do. The Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant rumors are out of their league from a salary and asset standpoint. And the sign-and-trade options aren't sure-fire home run hits. Plus, there aren't many teams out there with the room to sign Kuminga. An extension might be in both parties' best interests.
