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The Houston Rockets smashed all expectations during the 2024-25 season; after being touted as a potential playoff team after emerging from the cellar of the NBA en route to becoming a .500 team last season, the Rockets continued their upward trajectory and managed to separate themselves (somewhat) from the pack in the Western Conference, sealing the two-seed with days to spare in the regular season.
However, there are no easy playoff matchups in the West, and the Rockets were rewarded with a first-round matchup against the Golden State Warriors for all their troubles. This is a major opportunity for the franchise to get a major monkey off its back; they have not beaten the Warriors in a playoff series ever, with Golden State ending Houston's season in 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019.
The good news is that this is a new era for the Rockets; they have an up-and-coming young core led by Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson, and they seem to have figured out the Warriors matchup, if their last head-to-head is any indication. But a playoff series against a Stephen Curry-led team is never going to be easy and will push Houston to its absolute limit.
With that said, here are a few bold predictions for how the Rockets will handle the Warriors matchup in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs.
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Rockets hold Stephen Curry to an average of fewer than 20 points per game
Doubting Stephen Curry is never a smart move. Even on nights where Curry seemingly cannot buy a bucket, teams never ease up their defensive coverage on the Warriors star, as he can catch fire on any given moment and bend opposing teams to his will and bend them past their breaking point.
There may not be any other team in the NBA that knows how terrifying of a player Curry is to face under the bright lights of the playoffs. And with the Rockets having Ime Udoka as their head coach, that's another person who knows firsthand just how impossible it is to scheme for Curry and his GOAT-level ability to space the floor.
Even the 2022 Boston Celtics, a team that had plenty of incredible defensive weapons, couldn't hold Curry down for long. Udoka had players like Marcus Smart and Derrick White to entrust the Curry matchup, and yet the Warriors star still came out on top and embarrassed the Celtics, with Curry's Game 4 performance in the 2022 NBA Finals still living long in the memory.
Thus, even with the Rockets having as many players to throw at Curry as they have (Amen Thompson did an excellent job hounding Curry during their last matchup, Fred VanVleet has history chasing Curry around having done so in the 2019 NBA Finals, and Dillon Brooks is always game for a matchup against a superstar of Curry's caliber), it's not likely for them to hold him down to an average of fewer than 20 points across a whole series.
Curry has never been held down to fewer than 20 points per game across a whole playoff series in which he's healthy; that's just a testament to how the Warriors star always seems to figure it out. But there is a first time for everything, and this is not called a bold predictions piece for nothing. If the Rockets can sustain the way they frustrated Curry to a three-point performance over a week ago, then they are in business and could well be on their way to the second round of the playoffs.
Jalen Green shoots 50 percent or better in every game of the series
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Shooting efficiency and consistency have never been the strongest parts of Jalen Green's game. He can put up buckets in bunches, but he requires a ton of shot attempts to do so; this past season, he needed 17.5 shots a night to average 21.0 points per game as he shot 42.3 percent from the field (with a true shooting percentage of 54.4).
There are a lot of question marks regarding the Rockets and their ability to score in the halfcourt. They have been relying on pounding the glass and earning second-chance points. But for them to survive the Warriors bloodbath, they are going to have to learn to score more efficiently in a halfcourt setting, something that's easier said than done against a defense captained by Draymond Green.
It's not very likely at all for Green to shoot over 50 percent from the field in every game of the series. After all, he only did so on 17 of the 82 regular-season games he suited up in. But the 23-year-old guard has a chance to break out even further under the bright lights of the playoffs, and he'll do so in an unprecedented manner befitting of a bold predictions piece.
Houston takes series in 7
There comes a time where there is a changing of the guard in the NBA. History has shown that empires always fall and dynasties crumble, and it is a bit poetic that it's the Rockets that has a chance to plunge the Warriors deeper into a cloud of doubt as Stephen Curry's time as a foundational superstar nears its end.
Many will say that experience is a major factor in the playoffs, and perhaps that is true. The Warriors' core trio of Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green is as playoff battle-tested as it can get, and nothing can catch them off-guard anymore.
But the Rockets will be playing with house money, as they weren't expected to be this good this season anyway. They won't be feeling the pressure of needing to make it work this season like the Warriors do; their best players are still very young and barring any unforeseen negative development, they will be here to stay as a legitimate contending team even in the loaded Western Conference.
In a series where there is little separating the two sides, homecourt advantage should also play a huge part. And the Rockets will see their regular-season efforts be rewarded with a Game 7 at home, where they will finally be exorcising their Warriors playoff demons.
