The Houston Rockets did not have to make a blockbuster trade or huge free agency signing this offseason. Following a 52-win campaign and hard-fought effort against a seasoned Golden State Warriors squad brimming with big-game experience, many fans would have understood if the organization kept the young core intact and trusted natural development to run its course. If Houston resided in the injury-ravaged Eastern Conference, perhaps that strategy could work.
But teams in the West do not have the luxury to stand pat if they want to genuinely compete for a championship. The Rockets sprung into action this summer, implementing a plan that certainly looks auspicious on paper. They acquired one of the greatest offensive talents of all-time in Kevin Durant, reinforced the frontcourt by reuniting with Clint Capela and handed out new deals to Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith and Steven Adams.
Although Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks are now on the Phoenix Suns — traded for Durant along with several draft picks — Houston looks much more balanced entering the new season. The squad boasts a powerful mixture of veteran leadership, youthful intensity and scintillating skill. In other words, the Rockets sport the outward appearance of a legitimate title contender.
Expectations were already quite high in Space City, but now that the NBA schedule has officially dropped, there is a palpable excitement about what the franchise can achieve during the 2025-26 campaign. However, an underlying sense of nervousness is bound to flow through the Toyota Center, even if fans refuse to admit it.
Rockets general manager Rafael Stone made a massive decision to accelerate the team's competitive timetable, and while that sends a deeply encouraging message to the community, patience will considerably decrease moving forward. Now that Houston reeled in the 36-year-old Durant, it has no time to waste. Advancing to the Western Conference Finals is the bare minimum that will constitute a success.
It has been a long time since management could realistically strive for such a goal. Last year, few people predicted a second-place finish in the standings. Anything but that in 2025 will cause stress to rise. Using the new schedule as a guide, we are going to see if the Rockets are positioned to fulfill their ample potential this season.
Interesting takeaways from 2025-26 slate
We have already established that Houston is eying a championship, and it will immediately have an opportunity to see how it measures up with the current ruler of the basketball world. After the Oklahoma City Thunder receive their rings and hang up their first-ever title banner in the Paycom Center, the Rockets will look to send a message and dampen the celebratory mood.
Many people might assume that this is an obvious matchup given that these were the top two seeds in the West last season. The NBA did not have to pencil in Houston, however.
The Denver Nuggets pushed OKC to a Game 7, and Nikola Jokic is still arguably the best player in the game today. By selecting Ime Udoka's group for the privilege to begin the new campaign and help launch NBC's return to the NBA, the league is making it clear that the Rockets are one of their headliners in 2025-26.
The schedule will ensure that this team stays battle-tested after a taxing first exam. Houston plays 17 of its first 26 games on the road. The tail end of that stretch, which features six straight away from home, starts with the Anthony Davis-led Dallas Mavericks and ends with a Christmas Day face-off with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. Showdowns with the Nuggets and the aging yet formidable LA Clippers are sandwiched in between.
When Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and the rest of the gang finally return to the Toyota Center, they will greet the redemption-seeking Cleveland Cavaliers. Translation: the holiday season will be even more hectic and demanding than Houstonians probably anticipated. Of course, there is a silver lining to this extended grind. If the Rockets end 2025 in a prominent spot in the conference standings, fans will have much to be thankful for heading into the new year.
That does not mean the 2026 slate will be easy. Udoka and company will still need to navigate some potential speed bumps. Back-to-back home games against the Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves, two of their biggest threats to Western supremacy, will serve as possible appetizers to a thrilling postseason.
Both squads have superstars in reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and future MVP candidate Anthony Edwards, respectively, but they can also wear down their opponents with smothering defense. How Houston handles this physicality on Jan. 15-16 could show how prepared it is for the spring ramp-up. There will also be another key opportunity to gain confidence during the regular season.
Rockets' NBA Cup set-up
Winning the NBA Cup did little for the Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks the last couple of years, but I do believe the heightened atmosphere can add value. That is particularly true for young players like Sengun, Thompson, Jabari Smith and Tari Eason, all of whom suffered a stinging playoffs defeat less than four months ago.
Succeeding in an in-season tournament will not redeem that high-stakes stumble, but it could allow this roster to get a little more comfortable with the spotlight. While Kevin Durant's presence can certainly help on that front as well, snagging a trophy is a good way to increase morale and chemistry. The Rockets must get past West Group C in order to achieve that goal. They will battle the Nuggets, Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers, starting on Halloween.
The opportunity to vanquish a budding rival in Golden State is something the fan base will relish after a hard-fought and animosity-filled first-round showdown last postseason. Sengun recently fired a shot at the Dubs for complaining about fouls, prompting a response from the always outspoken Draymond Green. When these two foes clash on Thanksgiving eve as part of the NBA Cup, it will mark the first time they meet since that May 4 Game 7.
Vengeance is a powerful source of fuel. The Rockets are not limiting their sights to the Warriors, however. They aim to conquer the entire NBA. Are they up to it?
Projecting Houston's record
When taking account of the roster's existing core members, new additions like Durant and Clint Capela and the potential growth of second-year guard Reed Sheppard — 4.4 points in 12.6 minutes per game in 2024-25 — it is hard not to be excited about this group's ceiling during the 2025-26 campaign. And oh yeah, Ime Udoka has established himself as one of the top head coaches in the league. Mix it all together, and that is one mouthwatering recipe.
But the most delectable dish of all is getting served in OKC. The reigning champs are still young and now know they can reach the pinnacle. If healthy, they will be extremely difficult to beat in a best-of-seven series. However, much can change between now and the playoffs, so let's stay focused on the regular season.
Given the major injuries plaguing some of the Eastern Conference's most interesting teams — Boston Celtics cornerstone Jayson Tatum and supremely clutch Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton are both expected to miss the entire year with torn Achilles tendons — I foresee Houston increasing its 53 wins from last season. Though, because the West as a whole should be better, I am only giving the men in red a slight bump.
Record prediction: 54-28
Rockets will improve as a team, but not in the standings
As mentioned above, I believe the conference will tighten a bit more toward the top. Denver specifically jumps out as a team that could make a leap. Swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson is a potentially pivotal shakeup, and Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas and the returning Bruce Brown Jr. should comprise an improved supporting cast. If the Nuggets perform to their collective ability, they should now be equipped to survive the dreaded non-Jokic minutes.
I am slotting them right above the Rockets and directly behind the Thunder in the Western Conference standings. A third-place finish does not equate to a disappointment under these circumstances, however. Houston is deeper, more balanced, more experienced and more offensively skilled entering the new season. A No. 2 seed did not foretell a promising run in the 2025 NBA playoffs, and a No. 3 seed will not guarantee a doomed result in the 2026 iteration.
Once fans see the organization's two pillars make noticeable strides, they will feel less concerned about placement and more enthused about the future, both in the short and long term.
Who will receive special recognition by season's end?
Kevin Durant averaged 26.6 points per game while shooting 52.7 percent from the field and an outstanding 43.0 percent from 3-point land during the 2024-25 season. The all-time great scorer was three games short of earning an All-NBA selection, so he could feasibly achieve that honor in the next campaign. Durant's recently murky medical history will only be magnified by his upcoming 37th birthday, though.
Therefore, I am going to stick with youth when it comes to individual accolades. Alperen Sengun will further solidify himself as the No. 1 guy in H-Town with another stellar showing. The terrific Turk checked off his first All-Star Game appearance in February, and he will attain his first All-NBA Third-Team nod in 2026. Averaging a double-double like he did last season — 19.1 points ad 10.3 rebounds– will be harder to do with Durant in the mix, but fans should expect high-level play nonetheless.
Amen Thompson will boost his profile as well. While offensive improvement seems probable, the former top-five draft pick will still lean on his bread and butter. A second consecutive All-Defensive First-Team selection feels like a fairly safe bet, but I will go even farther. The 22-year-old will pose the biggest threat to Victor Wembanyama's inevitable Defensive Player of the Year title and finish as the runner-up.
Again, this season is about contending for a championship, first and foremost. But if Sengun and Thompson continue their respective ascents, then collective excellence should be within reach.
