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The first round of the 2021 NBA playoffs begins on Saturday. It is reasonable to say that a compressed pandemic season littered with injuries is not a foremost reflection of the actual quality of NBA teams. Yet, every postseason remains a proving ground and a measuring stick. Two teams facing enormous pressure to finally measure up in the playoffs will begin their postseasons on Saturday: the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Clippers.
No NBA teams endured a more devastating or humiliating playoff exit last summer than the Bucks and the Clippers. Milwaukee was taken to the cleaners by the Miami Heat, while the Clippers — up 3-1 in the series and leading by double-figure margins in both Games 5 and 6 — somehow lost to the Denver Nuggets.
The Bucks haven't made the NBA Finals since 1974. The Clippers still haven't reached the Western Conference finals, let alone the NBA Finals. These teams were expected to go deep in the 2020 playoffs and found a way to leave the Orlando bubble far earlier than most predicted.
Let's ask the question, point-blank: Which team needs a Game 1 playoff win more on Saturday afternoon, when the first round roars into action? There is no bad answer, but let's try to find the better one in this conversation, as the Bucks face the Heat again and the Clippers prepare for a playoff rematch with the Dallas Mavericks.
Let's start with the arguments on the Clippers' side of the debate:
One could certainly claim that with the Brooklyn Nets being a widely popular betting choice in these playoffs, and with the Philadelphia 76ers being the No. 1 seed in the East, the Bucks don't face THAT much pressure this postseason. This doesn't mean Milwaukee is free from pressure, just that the team isn't the clear choice to win the East, which is a departure from the previous two seasons. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't at the top of the NBA MVP list anymore. His team isn't a No. 1 seed anymore. All those points make sense and are true within a specific, immediate context.
Another convincing argument to make for the Clippers having more pressure than the Bucks in Game 1 of the first round is the well-known Clipper curse. Someway, somehow, this team has still not made the conference finals. Up 3-1 and leading the Nuggets by 15 points in the second half of Game 5, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that they would finally reach the third round of the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and compete with the Lakers for L.A. and Western Conference supremacy.
They crumbled and lost… but they still had two more chances to close out Denver. When they gained a 19-point lead in the third quarter of Game 6, SURELY this improbable hex was FINALLY going to be blown to bits.
Nope. The Nuggets outscored the Clippers by 29 points in the second half and won by double-digits, 111-98.
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Given how badly the Clippers — and Paul George in particular — choked last year in the playoffs, they carry a supreme burden into Game 1 against Luka Doncic and the Mavs. If they lose on their home floor, with Dallas expecting very large crowds in Texas for Games 3 and 4 (remember that pandemic fan attendance policies are going to be different from state to state this spring), we could see the Clips crumble again. This is a huge Game 1 for them in Staples Center on Saturday afternoon. No one would dispute that.
Yet, as convincing as that argument is, the Bucks face even more pressure in Game 1.
Let's remember that Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has an established track record of falling short in the playoffs. Let's remember that he has failed to make the NBA Finals three separate times as a No. 1 seed in the East, one of those times being with the Atlanta Hawks in 2015.
Bud is coaching for his job. He and the Bucks got exposed by Erik Spoelstra and the Heat in the bubble last year. If he gets smoked in the first round this year, he's gone. Ty Lue doesn't face that pressure with the Clippers.
Let's also note that the Bucks got Jrue Holiday to beat the Heat and win the East this season. The Clippers didn't make a move of similar importance this past season.
The Clippers badly need to win and breathe confidence into their lungs. No one disputes that. Yet, the Bucks are a more desperate team and face a more psychically significant moment as a franchise.
The Bucks need a Game 1 win more.
