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The Minnesota Timberwolves, yet again, have a significant rest advantage heading into their next playoff matchup — this time against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is coming off a bloodbath of a seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets. If anything, the Timberwolves would know just how exhausting it can be to fend off the Nuggets, as they flamed out in last year's Western Conference Finals in just five games after dethroning the 2023 NBA champion.
Nonetheless, any team facing the 68-win Thunder will be considered the underdog, and for good reason. After trading haymaker after haymaker against the Nuggets, the Thunder decided to ramp up the defensive aggression, making Nikola Jokic and company look inexperienced in the grand stage.
There is no fear, however, in this Timberwolves squad, and they played the Thunder as well as any team did in the regular season. But of course, the playoffs are different, and Minnesota will be having Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Donte DiVincenzo this time around unlike in their previous three matchups against OKC.
But for the Timberwolves to pull off the upset against the Thunder, they will have to clean up their execution and avoid running into the same pitfalls the Nuggets did in their Game 7 undoing. This is why these two players loom as huge X-factors for the Timberwolves.
How many minutes can Mike Conley give the Timberwolves?
The modern NBA game has placed a major emphasis on targeting the weakest link in the opposition's defense. The Timberwolves don't have too many weak spots on that end of the floor, but with Mike Conley being very old in NBA standards, he will be the main target for the Thunder to start things off especially given his lack of size.
Conley should start things off on Luguentz Dort, so at the very least, the Timberwolves can hide the veteran guard on defense, putting Jaden McDaniels on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards on Jalen Williams to start things off. In this series, it looks like keeping Conley on the floor will be imperative.
The Thunder hang their hat on defense, and there's no better proof of that than their demolition of the Nuggets in Game 7. Denver couldn't get an entry pass into the post, thanks to Alex Caruso, while Russell Westbrook threw a few wayward passes that gave OKC the momentum that they wouldn't relinquish.
Meanwhile, Conley is an experienced table-setter and is someone who takes good care of the basketball. Avoiding careless mistakes on offense should pave the way for the Timberwolves to do damage on that end of the floor with their assortment of shooters.
The Timberwolves are currently turning the ball over an average of 14.8 times in this year's playoffs. They have to be better, and Conley figures to play a huge role in that. It's all a matter of putting the right pieces around him defensively to avoid being put on the backfoot when the Thunder inevitably go mismatch-hunting.
Rudy Gobert's playoff viability will be put to the test again
Over the first two rounds of this year's playoffs, the Timberwolves went against teams with a lack of size on the interior. That paved the way for Rudy Gobert to do some serious, situational damage. His Game 5 performance against the Los Angeles Lakers was historic, and he was a combined +34 in the Timberwolves' final two games against the Golden State Warriors.
This time around, however, Gobert will be facing a team with plenty of size in Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. His impact on offense will be muted, and his presence will clog up driving lanes, allowing Hartenstein to protect the rim and cover the glass. But having Hartenstein on the floor would also allow Gobert to stay close to the rim and empower him and his DPOY ways.
When the Thunder go five out (with Holmgren at the five), that's when the Timberwolves will have to ask a lot of questions. But Chris Finch hasn't been afraid to deploy the Anthony Edwards, DiVincenzo, Randle, Naz Reid, and McDaniels lineup — a quintet that's been brilliant all playoffs long (net rating of +34.6 in 49 minutes) and is their unit that looks best-equipped to deal with a pace-and-space OKC attack.
Minnesota will have to pick its spots on when to deploy Gobert; his stone hands may also make the Timberwolves more prone to turning the ball over, which is death against the Thunder. Nonetheless, with the Timberwolves having plenty of non-Gobert options, Minnesota shouldn't be as exposed in the frontcourt as the Utah Jazz were back when Gobert was there.
