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The Orlando Magic are set to host the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. ET in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup of the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner will advance to the 2025 NBA Playoffs as the seventh seed and face the defending champion Boston Celtics (61-21) in the first round. The loser will face the winner of the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat on Friday for a final chance at the eighth seed.
Orlando finished the regular season at 41-41, a step back from its 47-win campaign in 2023-24 — the franchise’s highest win total since 2010-11. That season ended in a hard-fought seven-game first-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. This year, the Magic were once in control of the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference before a rash of injuries derailed their momentum.
Paolo Banchero missed 36 games with a torn oblique, while Franz Wagner later suffered the same injury, causing him to miss 22 games. The team also lost Jalen Suggs and Moritz Wagner to season-ending injuries, putting significant strain on the rotation throughout the second half of the year.
1. Magic to top Hawks behind favorable matchup and playoff history
The Magic have had mixed results against the Hawks in recent years, holding a 4-8 record since Paolo Banchero’s arrival in 2022. Three of Orlando’s four total wins during that span have come at home, though the Magic split this season’s series 2-2 with each team taking one game on the road.
This season’s matchups were a mix of tightly contested and lopsided games. In the two Atlanta wins, the Hawks posted a 9-point average margin of victory, while Orlando’s two victories came by an average of 6.5 points. Their most recent meeting — a 117-105 Hawks win in the season finale — came with both teams resting key starters.
Historically, the Magic have held the edge in postseason matchups. Orlando is 10-5 all-time against Atlanta in the playoffs. The Magic defeated the Hawks 4-1 in the 1996 Eastern Conference Semifinals, swept them 4-0 in the 2010 Semifinals, and lost 2-4 in the 2011 First Round.
2. Paolo Banchero will dominate
Banchero enters his second postseason campaign after delivering an impressive playoff debut in 2024. Against the Cavaliers, he averaged 27.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.1 steals per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 40% from three.
Despite missing significant time this year, Banchero averaged career-highs of 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists over 46 games, while shooting 45.2% from the field and 32% from deep. After the All-Star break, his numbers climbed to 29.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, while shooting 47.3% from the field and 33.3% from three.
In three games against the Hawks this season, Banchero posted 33.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 46.5% from the field and 37.5% from three on eight attempts. He also averaged 11.3 free-throw attempts per contest, converting at a 73.5% clip.
Franz Wagner, who returned from injury mid-season, also posted strong numbers against Atlanta. He averaged 28.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals in three matchups while shooting 47.8% from beyond the arc. With both stars healthy, the Magic possess a potent offensive duo capable of leading a postseason push.
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3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will step up
Orlando signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year, $66 million contract last offseason to bring championship experience and reliable two-way play to the backcourt. While his shooting declined to 34.2% from three — down from over 40% in three of the previous four seasons — he closed the year on an upward trajectory.
Over his final 10 games, Caldwell-Pope averaged 8.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 steals while shooting 53.8% from the field and 50% from deep on 3.8 attempts per game. In his last appearance against the Hawks, he tallied 15 points, three rebounds, two assists and three steals, hitting three-of-six from three. His veteran presence and ability to defend multiple positions will be vital for Orlando.
4. The Magic will shoot well from three against the Hawks
Three-point shooting has been a major issue for the Magic this season. They finished last in the NBA in three-point percentage (31.8%) and made the fewest threes per game (11.2), while also ranking third-worst in overall scoring at 105.4 points per game.
However, against Atlanta, those struggles have eased. Orlando averaged 111 points and shot 37.9% from three across four matchups this season, making an average of 11.8 threes on 31 attempts. In their last two games against the Hawks, the Magic knocked down a combined 29 threes, including 15 in the season finale. They’ve shot above 40% from deep in three of the four meetings.
Atlanta’s defense has contributed to those results. The Hawks allow the third-highest opponent three-point percentage in the league at 37.7% and rank among the bottom four in points allowed per game (119.3). Their perimeter defense could again be exploited by an Orlando team that shoots far better than its season average in this matchup.
The Magic will aim to capitalize on that edge to earn a second straight postseason berth and a potential showdown with the Celtics on Sunday.
