Just four teams remain on the hunt for a national championship in college basketball this season, and while Illinois and UConn might not be the matchup everyone expected to see in the first national semifinal on Saturday in Indianapolis, the heavyweight battle on the other side half of the bracket has been anticipated for a long time.
Arizona and Michigan have been the two best teams in college basketball for most of this season, and now they are set to face off in one of the most highly-anticipated matchups in the history of the Final Four. After dominant regular seasons, both the Wildcats and the Wolverines have shown why they are the cream of the crop this season during this NCAA Tournament, with neither really sweating on their way to Indy.
Michigan had almost no trouble in its first four games, beating Howard, Saint Louis, Alabama and Tennessee by a combined 90 points. On the other side, Arizona won its first three games against Long Island, Utah State and Arkansas by 67 points before falling down by seven at halftime in the Elite Eight against Purdue. However, Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats turned it around in the second half, outscoring the Boilermakers 48-26 in the second half to reach their first Final Four in 25 years.
That sets up what should be a great battle of two of the deepest and best teams college basketball has seen in recent years. Arizona and Michigan are the top-two ranked teams in Torvik and KenPom, and they are the Nos. 3 and 4 ranked teams in the KenPom era. All signs are pointing to a classic clash that will be talked about for years to come.
While these two teams are very evenly-matched, there are a few areas where Arizona will feel like it has a slight advantage, and vice versa for the Wolverines.
Guard depth is in Arizona's favor
Arizona and Michigan both have absolutely massive front courts with a lot of depth, so a lot of the focus coming into this game will be on that. Mo Krivas, Tobe Awaka and Koa Peat form a three-headed monster inside, but they will be matched by Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara of Arizona.
However, the Wildcats should have the advantage at the guard spot. Michigan has a solid point guard in Elliot Cadeau, but he is recovering from a bizarre incident where he had an allergic reaction and had to join the team in Indianapolis late. The Wolverines are also still operating without backup point guard LJ Cason, who is out for the season with a knee injury.
Cason is one of the best backup guards in the nation, so that is a huge loss for Dusty May and company as they seek a national title. Now, Cadeau shoulders a lot of the load as the lead guard, while Lendeborg has also seen an increase in on-ball reps. Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle Jr. have also shared some of those duties, but none of them match up to the depth Arizona has in the backcourt.
For starters, Jaden Bradley is leading the way for Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats. The Big 12 Player of the Year has a ton of experience at the point guard spot this year and has been one of the most clutch players in the country all season long. While he may not put up gaudy scoring numbers throughout games, he is always able to get a bucket when Arizona needs him to.
Beyond Bradley, Brayden Burries is a combo guard who has gotten better and better as the season has gone on and will almost surely be a first-round pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Burries is arguably the best 3-point shooter on the team and that will be a big factor in this game, as Michigan makes it very hard to get easy baskets inside.
The guard depth is an advantage for Arizona, but the Wildcats should also be safe from committing a lot of turnovers, especially against a Michigan defense that only forces a turnover on 15% of its possessions (285th in the country).
Arizona's offensive tendencies play right into Michigan's hands
While Arizona may not have problems turning the ball over in this game, the Wildcats may find it hard to score against Michigan given the way they play and what Michigan is among the best at stopping.
Arizona is unique in that it is a very good offense despite not taking, or making, a lot of 3-pointers. Tommy Lloyd's Wildcats are 363rd in the country, out of 365 teams, in 3-point rate, launching from beyond the arc on just 26.4% of their attempts. In the Sweet 16 against Arkansas, Arizona was able to rack up 109 points despite attempting just eight 3-pointers in the whole game.
When Arizona does get a 3 off, it shoots at a 36.7% clip, which is a very respectable mark. However, that's not how Lloyd and company want to live, especially if they're not getting the ball inside consistently.
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, that plan isn't going to mesh well with what Michigan does defensively. The Wolverines do not make it easy on anyone who is trying to score on the interior. Michigan opponents are shooting just 44.3% on 2-pointers this season, the third-lowest mark in the country. Aday Mara is a 7-foot-3 behemoth in the paint, and the length of Johnson and Lendeborg makes it very difficult to get inside.
On the flip side of that, Michigan does give up a lot of 3-point attempts, even if the Wolverines are pretty good at funneling those shots away from elite shooters and forcing opponents to shoot low percentages. Some teams in the Big Ten, like Purdue and Wisconsin, were able to take advantage of that, but Arizona doesn't take enough 3s to do so.
Overview
While a lot of this game is going to be played inside the 3-point line, it will be interesting to see what Arizona comes up with to try to spread Michigan out defensively. Does that mean a more aggressive Burries? Some more Anthony Dell'Orso?
On the other side, Michigan's wings are going to have to play some of their best basketball along with Cadeau to keep pace with Burries and Bradley in the backcourt. If not, Arizona will have the chance to control the game and dictate the terms of play.
Overall, this is going to be a great battle between two of the best teams in this decade of college basketball, one that has all the makings of an instant classic.
