Subscribe
Follow Us
The Texas Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the country entering the 2025 college football season. That means they’ll have a bullseye on their chest with every opponent they face looking to make a statement against them.
But make no mistake, there’s a good reason this Longhorns team is ranked No. 1. They’re extremely talented from top to bottom at nearly every position. It’s also Year 5 for head coach Steve Sarkisian, and this feels like the team he’s been building toward since arriving in Austin back in 2021.
The Longhorns have come painstakingly close to reaching the national championship the last two seasons, falling in the semifinals both times. But nearly everyone is calling for them to win it all this year, including On3's Ari Wasserman.
“Who has been knocking on the door harder than Steve Sarkisian? It seems like a matter of when, not if, the Longhorns break through and get it done. And with high expectations for [Arch] Manning, and an ultra-talented roster, Texas seems to be the team to beat heading into 2025,” Wasserman wrote.
Will it happen? Will Texas capture its first national championship since 2005? Let’s get into our Texas Longhorns bold predictions for the 2025 season.
Texas will lose to Oklahoma in Red River Rivalry game
Steve Sarkisian is 2-2 against Oklahoma, winning two of the last three. In both of those victories, Texas outscored its biggest rival 83-3. Still, the Longhorns are just 2-5 in their last seven meetings with the Sooners.
Like any great college rivalry, just about anything can happen in this game. This year’s matchup in particular has the potential to be a classic — and that’s because it could showcase two of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Texas’ Arch Manning and Oklahoma’s John Mateer.
Many are sleeping on the Sooners this season despite their No. 18 ranking in the AP poll. Head coach Brent Venables has upgraded parts of his staff and roster, including adding Mateer and his Washington State offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle.
Oklahoma will also be coming off a tune-up against Kent State before heading to Dallas. Meanwhile, the Longhorns will have to make the trek to Gainesville to take on the Gators.
Arch Manning is very good, just not great… yet
There may not be a more hyped player in the last two decades than Texas’ Arch Manning. Of course, much of that has to do with the name on the back of his jersey — the same one his uncles Peyton and Eli, along with his grandfather Archie, made famous.
The reality is that’s all Manning is right now: hype. The former five-star prospect certainly has all the tools and athletic ability to be great. However, it may still take time to bring it all together.
The redshirt sophomore has just two starts to his name, with appearances in 12 games overall. He’s thrown for 969 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions, while adding 115 rushing yards and four more scores.
It can only help that Manning spent the past two seasons learning from Quinn Ewers and gaining a strong grasp of Steve Sarkisian’s offense. But first-time starters often deal with their fair share of hiccups. Manning will be a top-15 passer in the country — but he won’t be a Heisman Trophy winner in 2025.
Texas wins SEC Championship, earns 1st round bye in playoff
In their first season in the SEC, Texas reached the conference title game but fell to Georgia. It didn’t matter, as the Longhorns still earned a spot in the College Football Playoff and advanced back to the semifinal.
This year, they’ll create a much easier path for themselves. Texas will win the SEC championship for the first time and secure a first-round bye. Because let’s face it — there’s no way the SEC champion isn’t getting that bye.
Texas doesn't make the CFP National Championship… or semifinal
There aren’t too many doubters of the Longhorns this season. Many have pegged them not only to reach the national title game but to win it outright. But the prediction here is that they won’t even make it back to the semifinal.
Even though the CFP committee has changed the format so the top seeds earn the four byes, the short history isn’t on their side. Last year’s four conference champions all lost in the quarterfinals. Maybe that was the committee’s awful original seeding idea, or maybe it was just a momentum thing. Either way, all of them went home early.
This also comes back to Manning, who still has to prove himself as the quarterback everyone expects him to be. Unlike his predecessor, Manning will have a good season — but he won’t be able to lead the Longhorns to their third semifinal or the coveted national title game.
