The team with the biggest expectations in college football for the 2025 season was easily the Texas football program. The Longhorns were ranked as the top team in both preseason polls, and with Arch Manning taking over under center, the expectations were through the roof. Now, after two weeks, there are doubts about whether Manning will enter the 2026 NFL Draft.
ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper recently discussed Arch Manning's situation. The physical tools are obviously there, but Kiper does not think Manning will declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. The biggest reason is that you can tell that Manning is still growing in the system and still figuring things out, so seeing him suddenly being ready for the NFL after one year is difficult.
On “First Draft with Mel Kiper and Field Yates”, Kiper elaborated more on what he thinks about Manning's NFL chances this season.
“For Arch Manning, maybe it’d be tempting for him if he does play at that level down the road, if he doesn’t, it’s an easy decision. But even if he does play at that level, I’m not coming out after one season. History tells us you shouldn’t. I would want to go through a year where he’s the guy next year,” Kiper said.
“You see that alpha, that guy that says, ‘I’ve got a command of this offense, I’ve got a command of college football, I can dominate, you just see it. He’s trying to figure it out. If you’re trying to figure out college, you’re not attending the NFL in April. Forget about it. He’s back at Texas for year two next season, he's not going to be on any of my big boards, he’s not going to be on any of my top ten positional analysis coming out, my rankings. He will not appear.”
In Kiper's eyes, the differentiator is that Manning has been inconsistent through two games, and in the NFL, you need to be consistent for 17 weeks.
Considering that multiple people believed that Manning was the best prospect in college football this season, this is a massive drop considering the expectations.
It is still early in the season, and Arch Manning has time to right the ship, but the inconsistency has been noticeable, and unless he makes it official, Manning has proven he needs more time to get things right. The expectations were massive for Manning, something that Steve Sarkisian acknowledged, but time will tell if he can make things right.
