Alabama is now 8-2 on the season, after the Crimson Tide fell to Oklahoma last weekend. While a drop in the rankings was expected, the ranking for Alabama is now too low. They are ranked tenth in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but with who is in front of them, they should be higher.
Even with the loss, Alabama is still one of the top teams in the SEC, which may be the best conference in the country this year. The two losses this year bookend eight straight wins, including multiple over top-quality teams. Hunter Yurachek tried to explain the ranking of Alabama, but it falls short overall.
Should the loss to Florida State hurt Alabama?
Alabama opened the season with a loss to Florida State. The second loss of the season is to Oklahoma, which is not ranked inside the top ten, and something the playoff committee seems to be willing to excuse. Still, they are not excusing the 14-point loss to the Seminoles when the Crimson Tide were 13.5-point favorites.
“[Alabama] had that loss at the beginning of the season, 31-17, at Florida State – a team that’s now 5-5. Florida State was up in that game 24-7, and they held Alabama to less than 100 yards rushing in that game. That, really, was a sign of some of the struggles Alabama was going to have rushing the ball,” Yurachek told the media when evaluating Alabama.
It is true, Florida State is a 5-5 team. Of the other 14 teams in the top 15 of the rankings, none of them have a loss to a team at .500 or below currently. Georgia Tech, ranked 16, has a loss to 5-5 NC State. Texas, ranked 17, has a loss to 3-7 Florida. Virginia, ranked 19, also lost to NC State. Houston, Tulane, and Arizona State, who finish up the Top 25, all have losses to teams at or below the .500 mark. Alabama is the top-ranked team with a bad loss.
Regardless, there are a few factors that should discount the loss somewhat. To begin with, it was the first game of the season. The playoff committee has shown, teams that grow do get credit if they lose early. Second, Yurachek mentions the run game. Jam Miller, the top running back for the Tide, was injured late in camp. Miller missed the game with Florida State and is the leading rusher for the team. The Tide's running game is still not good, but the committee has looked at injuries in the past. They should in this case as well. Alabama was left scrabbling to figure out the running game when they spent the entire offseason expecting Miller to carry the load.
Alabama has the quality wins
While the loss to Florida State is bad, no one has the wins that Alabama has. Alabama has wins over Georgia, ranked fourth, Vanderbilt, ranked 14th, Missouri, ranked 22nd, and Tennessee, ranked 20th. Not only is that four wins over teams ranked in the playoff rankings, but it was done over four consecutive games in four weeks, with two of them on the road. The biggest win, the 24-21 victory over Georgia, was a road game.
No other team boasts this quality of winning. Georgia, which lost to Alabama, only has wins over three ranked teams. Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas. Only one was on the road. Texas Tech is ranked fifth, but has just one win over a currently ranked opponent, defeating BYU. Ole Miss, who lost to Georgia, has just one currently ranked win, defeating Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Oregon's biggest win is over Iowa, which just dropped out of the rankings.
Finally, Notre Dame has a win over USC, which is ranked 15th, and Pitt, which just dropped from the rankings. Alabama has two wins over teams with a better ranking than USC, and two more with a better ranking than Pitt. If winning is not credited, Alabama should just schedule teams like UL Monroe, which they beat 73-0, to fill out the non-conference schedule. That would allow them to still lose to a team like Oklahoma and not have the precipitous drop, placing them in danger of missing the playoffs.
Could the Tide miss the playoffs?
The latest ranking of Alabama at ten was surprising. Still, outside of the Crimson Tide dropping another game, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which they do not make the playoffs. They will likely be playing in the SEC title game, and a win there gives them an automatic berth. Regardless, if they lose the SEC title game, there is a scenario in which they miss the playoffs due to their current low rankings.
Texas A&M would be in as the SEC Champion. Assuming both Georgia and Ole Miss win out, they will be with just one loss. They will also not have to play in a conference championship. This will place them in the playoffs. If Ohio State and Indiana continue undefeated, one will be in with the automatic bid. The other team will have just one loss, most likely to the top-ranked team in the nation. The Big 12, ACC, and Group of Five will also get in champions; therefore, eight of the 12 spots are spoken for.
Alabama is currently behind Oklahoma, Oregon, and Notre Dame. If all three win out, and Alabama loses to Texas A&M in the SEC Championship, they will all get in. That would leave BYU and Texas Tech. If both teams win their final two games, they will rematch for the Big 12 title. The committee will then have to decide between either Alabama and a two-loss Texas Tech, which had beaten BYU previously in the season, or Alabama and a two-loss BYU team that has only lost to Texas Tech twice. This low ranking does put Alabama in a precarious spot. Still, if they keep winning, none of this will matter.
