New Mexico State looks to win their second straight bowl game under Jerry Kill as they face Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a New Mexico Bowl New Mexico State- Fresno State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The New Mexico Bowl was founded in 2006 originally as another bowl option for bowl-eligible WAC teams. The WAC conference has dispersed, but the game remains, now between Conference USA and Mountain West teams. It is the first-ever appearance for New Mexico State in this game out of CUSA. They were 10-4 this year. New Mexico State started just 2-3 on the year but went on an eight-game winning streak to move to the conference title game. It was a solid performance for the offense, as they put up 35 points, but Liberty scored 14 points in the fourth quarter and would win 49-35.

Meanwhile, Fresno State is in this game for the fourth time. They have just one win at the New Mexico Bowl. They come into the game at 8-4 overall. Fresno State started strong with a 5-0 record and wins over Purdue and Arizona State. Still, they ended the season with a struggle, losing their last three games overall.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

New Mexico Bowl Odds: New Mexico State-Fresno State Odds

New Mexico State: -3.5 (-120)

Fresno State: +3.5 (-102)

Over: 51.5 (-110)

Under: 51.5 (-110)

How to Watch New Mexico State vs. Fresno State

Time: 5:45 PM ET/ 2:45 PM PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why New Mexico State Will Cover The Spread

New Mexico State comes in ranked 62nd in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 42nd in yards per game. The rushing game has been great for them this year, sitting 13th in the nation, while the passing game sits 78th in terms of yards per game. The offense is led by Diego Pavia. While he was injured in the Conference USA title game with Liberty, the expectation is he will play in this game. Pavia has completed 210 of 342 passes this year for 2,906 yards with 26 touchdowns. In the last four games, he has had multiple touchdowns in three of them. Further, he has had just four turnover-worthy passes in those five games, while having eight big-time throws according to PFF.

Meanwhile, Pavia has been great on the ground this year. Pavia has run for 972 yards on the ground this year while running for six touchdowns. Only 304 of the yards are scramble yards this year. Pacvia leads the team in rushing yards this year, but New Mexico State also has Star Thomas. Thomas comes into the game with 641 yards and four touchdowns this year. Meanwhile, they add Monte Watkins to the backfield, who comes in with 569 yards this year with two scores.

In the receiving game, Trent Hudson will not be in this game. He has entered the transfer portal, and out with him his 35 receptions and 571 yards. He also led the team with ten touchdown receptions. Still, New Mexico State has Jonathan Brady. He comes into the game with 613 yards on the year and four scores on the year. Brady also does not have a drop this year. Meanwhile, Eli Stowers comes in with 341 yards and two scores on the year.

On defense, New Mexico State is the 27th-ranked defense in terms of points per game. they are 78th in terms of yards per game but rank sixth in red zone scoring this year. They rank 62nd in rushing yards per game while sitting 68th against the pass. The top player on the defense this year has been safety Myler Rowser. He comes into the game with 12 stops for offensive failures in the run game, while having just three missed tackles all year. Further, he has an interception and three pass breakups, while allowing just 232 yards receiving, but with three scores.

Why Fresno State Will Cover The Spread

The Fresno State offense ranks 47th in the nation in points per game while sitting 67th in yards per game. Still, they are one of the best on third downs this year, converting 48.43 percent of them, 11th in the nation on third down conversion rate. In the passing game, they rank 26th in the nation but in the run, they rank 116th. There are bigger issues for Fresno than on the field right now. Jeff Tedford has stepped away due to health issues. This means Tim Skipper will be at the helm. Skipper in is his season stint at Fresno State.

After playing there as a linebacker from 1997-2000, he spent time at Western New Mexico and Sacramento State, before sitting on the staff from 2006-2011. After time away, including coaching at Florida, Skipper came back to the staff in 2022 as the assistant head coach and Linebackers Coach. This will be his first game as a head coach.

The Fresno State offense is led by Mikey Keene. He has passed for 2,599 yards this year, while also having 20 passing touchdowns. Still, he does not have a passing touchdown in the last two games, and just two in his last four games overall. He also has nine interceptions this year, but just ten turnover worry passes this year.

Meanwhile, the rushing offense is led by Malik Sherrod. He has 877 yards this year with nine touchdowns. He has been solid after first contact this year with 555 yards after contact on the season. Meanwhile, Elijah Gillam has 376 yards this year and five scores.

On defense this year, Fresno State is 47th in opponent scoring per game, while sitting 65th in opponent yards per game. they are 98th against the rush, but 50th against the pass. Morice Norris leads the way on defense. The corner has three sacks this year, while also forcing a fumble, having two interceptions, and not allowing a touchdown this year.

Final New Mexico State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick

Fresno State struggled at the end of the season, and now they are without their head coach. That could go one of two ways. Players could step up and make big plays, or, they could crumble. Regardless, New Mexico State, since October, has lost just one game. The one game is the conference title game with Liberty who is playing in a New Year's Six Bowl. Liberty has the resources and talent of a lower-level power five teams. Still, New Mexico State hung with them. Further, Diego Pavia produces magic in big games, and he will be the difference in this one.

Final New Mexico State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick: New Mexico State -3.5 (-120)