This weekend, we have some big-name NFL games as the Rams take on the Chiefs and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers take on Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. Continue our NFL odds series for my best bets for this weekend’s exciting slate of NFL games.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Rams – Chiefs
Rams +15.5 (-108)
The Los Angeles Rams have certainly had a disappointing year and have not lived up to their preseason expectations, and the Kansas City Chiefs are having another high-flying offensive season with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. However, this spread just shouldn’t be 15 points. Any time that you give me a spread of two touchdowns (and extra point conversions) in the NFL, I will take that underdog almost every single time. This isn’t college football, there is just too much parity in the NFL for a spread this large.
Part of the reason for this number is that the game will be played in Kansas City, however, I weigh the road team disadvantage slightly less against Los Angeles due to their experience. Matt Stafford has played quarterback in the NFL for over a decade, head coach Sean McVay has plenty of experience, and most of the team’s defense has been around for several years as well. This is a veteran team that will not be fazed going into a hostile environment.
Also, despite the fact that they had home-field advantage in a stroke of luck, many players on this Rams team have won a Super Bowl. Even being at home, there is still immense pressure and the bright lights of the Super Bowl can prepare you for anything.
I don’t think the Rams can win outright, but they should absolutely be able to keep it within two touchdowns. I’m anticipating a final score of 31-24 in favor of Kansas City.
Jets – Bears
Under 38.5 (-110)
This game is shaping up to be an offensive disaster. On one side of this matchup, we have a miserable Jets offense that only managed to score three points last week against the Patriots (yes, you read that correctly, three points). Zach Wilson has been benched, but whether Mike White will be much of an upgrade is an open question. The Jets will probably win this game, given that they have an elite defense led by a dominant front 7 and an elite cover corner in Sauce Gardner.
The Chicago Bears are also having quarterback troubles of their own, with their electrifying young QB, Justin Fields, a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. Fields wants to play but openly admitted that the shoulder is bothering him significantly. It’s a bit of a double-edged sword – if Fields does play, he will likely be extremely limited both in terms of throwing the ball and rushing, and if he doesn’t suit up, Trevor Siemian has not exactly inspired much confidence throughout his NFL career.
The Jets should shut the Bears down offensively while providing little offensive firepower of their own. Expect an ugly victory of the 14-7, 17-10 variety. At best, expect a score of 21-14, which still cashed the under by four points.
Steelers – Colts
Steelers moneyline +122
This is the perfect example of a coin toss game, and I would argue that Pittsburgh should even be a slight favorite here, at least on a neutral field.
With TJ Watt back in the lineup, the Steelers beat the New Orleans Saints by 10 points and came within striking distance of the Cincinnati Bengals, ultimately losing by a touchdown.
Najee Harris will need to run hard, Kenny Pickett will need to show something and continue his game-manager ways, protecting the football and making the easy throws while occasionally converting on plays down the field, and Pittsburgh’s receivers will need to do their part, getting open, catching the balls that come their way, and creating yards after the catch. If Pittsburgh can score 24 points, I love their chances in this game, although I think they’d have a chance of winning scoring as low as 17, just because of how strong their defense is.