The Detroit Lions will enter the 2023 season with some optimism as they hope to cement their status as a contender. We are here to share our NFL odds series, and make a Detroit Lions over-under win total prediction and pick.
The Lions went 9-8 in 2022 and finished second in the NFC North. Unfortunately, they just missed the playoffs in Dan Campbell's second season at the helm. The Lions started 1-6 and then roared to an 8-2 finish. Significantly, they swept the Green Bay Packers and went 5-1 against their divisional opponents.
Some of their core victories included a 31-18 win over the New York Giants at the Meadowlands. Likewise, they also destroyed the Jacksonville Jaguars 40-14 at home. But the Lions were 3-5 against playoff teams and will need to improve on that mark in 2023.
The Lions made some significant changes to their roster in an attempt to enhance their talent. Therefore, some of their biggest pickups included wide receiver Marvin Jones and running back David Montgomery Jr. They also picked up guard Graham Glasgow and cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Mac McCain.
Detroit also stocked up in the draft by selecting running back Jahmyr Gibbs, linebacker Jack Campbell, and tight end Sam LaPorta. Additionally, the Lions drafted quarterback Hendon Hooker, who will spend the season recovering from an ACL injury and watching Jared Goff.
The Lions made headline news by trading away cornerback Jeff Okudah and running back D'Andre Swift. Now, they will attempt to fill the void with their free-agent signings and their draft picks.
Detroit also retains their offensive and defensive coordinator despite both gaining attention from other teams for coaching jobs. Ultimately, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will be back to establish consistency.
Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 9.5 wins: -122
Under 9.5 wins: +100
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Why The Lions Can Win 9.5 Games
The Lions' offense was explosive in 2022. Now, they look to replicate the success. Goff had a 65.1 percent completion percentage with 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Also, he had a great receiver to throw to. Amon-Ra St. Brown produced 106 receptions for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns. Now, the receiving core will have Jones to serve as a compliment to St. Brown. LaPorta had 58 receptions for 657 yards in his last season at Iowa and will attempt to turn into an additional weapon for the Lions' offense.
The Lions drafted a running back, and he will run behind the best offensive line in football. Significantly, center Frank Ragnow, left tackle Taylor Decker, left guard Jonah Jackson, right guard Halapoulivaatai, and right tackle Penei Sewell all held the line and opened lanes for the rushing attack while protecting Goff.
The defense does not have many strengths. However, left edge Aidan Hutchinson produced 34 solo tackles, 9.5 sacks, and three interceptions. Look for him to create a bigger impact for the Lions on the defensive side of the ball.
The Lions will win 10 games if their offense continues to improve. Then, they will cement 10 wins if their pass rush becomes elite.
Why The Lions Can Not Win 9.5 Games
The defense was the main reason why the Lions started 1-6. Yes, they roared back and finished 9-8. But you need to remember that while they went 5-1 against their division, they went 4-7 against everyone else. Ultimately, the Lions could not handle the elite offenses. One example of this happened against the Seattle Seahawks when they allowed Geno Smith to carve them for 320 yards and two touchdowns. Additionally, they allowed 48 points in that game, including 24 in the first half.
The Lions will start the season against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Then, they will face Smith and the Seahawks in Week 2. Their slate also includes games against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, and Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. However, the rest of their schedule features games against their division and offenses that struggled in 2022. It will be interesting to see how this defense does against those elite offenses and then the rest of the slate.
The Lions will win 10 games if their defense shows some improvement. Also, their offense must stay healthy.
Final Lions Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Aaron Rodgers is no longer in the division. Additionally, Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins are not threats. The Lions have the division in their hands if they choose. Ultimately, they will get the job done and win the NFC North for the first time ever.
Final Lions Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 9.5 wins: -122
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