The Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play in an inter-conference matchup on Sunday. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Dolphins-Buccaneers prediction and pick.
The Buccaneers will look to move to 4-1 after a tough win at the New England Patriots in Week 4, while the Dolphins will look to avoid falling to 1-4. Miami has lost three straight games after a Week 1 win over New England. Tom Brady will look to add to his NFL passing record against a familiar opponent from his days in the AFC East.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the Dolphins-Buccaneers odds for this Sunday matchup.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Buccaneers Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 (-110)
Miami Dolphins +10 (-110)
Over 48 points (-110)
Under 48 points (-110)
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Why The Dolphins Can Cover The Spread
Miami's defense is still scrappy. Unfortunately, their offense puts them in tough positions far too often. With no run game and poor pass protection, the Dolphins have struggled to put together drives this season. This has resulted in the defense being on the field too much of the time, giving opponents an advantage.
If Miami is going to cover the spread in Tampa this week, the key will be getting pressure on Brady. Jacoby Brissett will likely be under duress against a strong Buccaneers front, so the Dolphins will need to make sure Brady is also uncomfortable in the pocket. The path to a cover for the Dolphins is likely a sloppy, low scoring game as they don't have the firepower to keep up with Brady & co. in a shootout.
Ten points is a lot if the Dolphins can limit the number of possessions in this game. This seems unlikely as Miami will likely not be able to run on the Buccaneers' top ranked rush defense. Tampa allows just 47 rushing yards per game so far this season, nearly 20 yards less than the next best team.
Why The Buccaneers Can Cover The Spread
10 points honestly feels a bit low for this spread when considering how bad the Dolphins offense has been in 2021. Brady and the Buccaneers have been pretty good, and will look to continue to hit their stride as a group. Miami's defense will present challenges for Brady, but if the defense is able to keep the Dolphins offense off the field, he will have enough chances to figure out a way to put up points.
Tampa's defense is a little banged up, which could be a concern. Most of the injuries are in the secondary, however, so their front may still be able to wreck the game and create chaos for the Dolphins. There's a lot of reasons the Buccaneers can cover this spread, but they might have to play a complete 60-minute game to cover such a large number vs. a solid defense.
Final Dolphins-Buccaneers Prediction & Pick
It's too hard to fade Brady at home against a struggling opponent. Take Tampa Bay to cover the the 10 points. When a team struggles to generate offense as bad as Miami does, it can become a long day for the defense. Count on Brady to get enough points for the cover.
FINAL DOLPHINS-BUCCANEERS PREDICTION & PICK: Buccaneers -10 (-110)
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