Hitting 45 passing touchdowns is always tough, and these quarterbacks believe they can. We're finding our receivers in the endzone as we share our NFL odds series and make a regular season passing touchdowns prediction and pick.
Patrick Mahomes already played on Thursday. Therefore, he is not included in this article as the odds have highlighted these other six players as a last-minute bet before the NFL season begins. Only eight players have passed for 45 touchdowns. Will a ninth do it this season?
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Most Regular Season Passing Touchdowns Odds
Dak Prescott: +850
CJ Stroud: +850
Joe Burrow: +1000
Brock Purdy: +1000
Josh Allen: +1300
Jared Goff: +1300
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Why Dak Prescott Will Pass 45 Touchdowns
Dak Prescott still needs a new contract and has not signed long-term contracts for the Dallas Cowboys. Regardless, he will be back and attempt to hit 45 touchdowns in a season for the first time. While the odds are long, Prescott can hit the mark. Think about it. Prescott will have Ceedee Lamb to throw to. Ultimately, he is one of the best wide receivers in football. Lamb will give Prescott a good reliable option to fling the ball to whenever he needs someone to score. But Prescott would need to shatter the 41 touchdowns he threw in 2022. So far, that is his highest mark. Jake Ferguson will also be back as the tight end to catch passes from Prescott.
Why CJ Stroud Will Pass 45 Touchdowns
Many believe CJ Stroud will achieve a lot this season. The young quarterback hopes to take the next step in his development after passing for 23 touchdowns last season. But will he do enough to jump from 23 to 45? Let's look at his weapons. Nico Collins and Tank Dell both can stretch the field and showed their talent in one year with Stroud. The Texans traded for Stefon Diggs, a Pro Bowl receiver who will certainly add immense value. Additionally, the Texans also signed Joe Mixon, giving them a running back who can catch passes out of the backfield. The Texans also have tight end Dalton Schultz, a red-zone weapon.
Why Joe Burrow Will Pass 45 Touchdowns
Joe Burrow has never closed in on 45 touchdowns. However, there is potential for him to hit the mark. Burrow hit 35 touchdowns in 2022 and 34 in 2021. Unfortunately, he struggled with injuries last season and could not come close to 30. Burrow hopes to stay healthy and find his receivers. Luckily, he will still have Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to throw to. Burrow will also have Zack Moss catching passes out of the backfield. Therefore, Burrow has a lot of opportunities. He needs to stay upright.
Why Brock Purdy Will Pass 45 Touchdowns
Brock Purdy accomplished a lot in his first full season as a starting quarterback with the San Francisco 49ers. Amazingly, he passed for 31 touchdowns last season. Purdy certainly has the skillset and the great quarterback mind to get to 4o touchdowns. But 45 might be tough. It is not for lack of talent but rather because Purdy is on a team with many mouths to feed. Most notably, Christian McCaffrey is the player the San Francisco offense runs through. Because of this, the Niners will likely get more rushing touchdowns. It could still set up Purdy for another good season, especially with amazing playmakers like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk.
Why Josh Allen Will Pass 45 Touchdowns
Josh Allen is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. However, he uses his legs nearly as much as he uses his arm. Because of this, Allen has not had the passing touchdown numbers we might expect. Significantly, he passed for just 29 touchdowns last season. Allen had 37 touchdowns in 202o, which was his highest mark. Additionally, he lost his top weapons, Diggs and Gabe Davis. Allen has the talent to do it. But he will need several exceptional games.
Why Jared Goff Will Pass 45 Touchdowns
Jared Goff has never been an elite quarterback. However, he has crossed 30 touchdowns twice and will have some of the best weapons in the NFL. Goff will enter the season with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta to pass to. Furthermore, he will also have Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield. There will be chances.
Final Most Regular Season Passing Touchdowns Prediction & Pick
It's really difficult to get to 45 touchdowns, as only nine have done it, with Aaron Rodgers being the last to do it in 2020. Before that, Mahomes accomplished it in 2018. Is there anyone in this group capable of that? Right now, the only one we can see getting there is Stroud. The Texans are set up to be an air raid team, and Stroud will only get better as his career blossoms. We do see at least one 45-touchdown season from Stroud. It could easily happen this season.
Final Most Regular Season Passing Touchdowns Prediction & Pick: CJ Stroud: +850
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