The Baltimore Ravens will face the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 10. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Ravens-Dolphins prediction and pick.
This game is a huge opportunity for the Ravens. They face a poor Dolphins team in prime time with the opportunity to extend their lead in the AFC North. The rival Cincinnati Bengals are on their bye week, so a win here would put a nice gap in between Baltimore and the next closest team in the division.
For more insight on the Week 10 matchup between the Ravens and Dolphins, listen below:
Miami doesn't have nearly as much to play for as Baltimore does, but this is still a big game for them. A win against one of the best teams in the AFC would go a long way in inspiring some confidence in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, though there's still a question about if he'll play due to his finger injury. Even a decent showing in a defeat would give the Dolphins some confidence moving forward.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Ravens-Dolphins.
NFL Odds: Ravens-Dolphins Odds
Baltimore Ravens: -7.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins: +7.5 (-110)
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
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Why the Ravens Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore is clearly the more talented team coming into this matchup. The Ravens have earned themselves a nice 6-2 record behind the strength of their offense, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson is an underrated MVP candidate, and it's hard to see Miami slowing him down in this one. The Dolphins are just below average in rushing yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per carry, two crucial numbers when facing this Ravens attack. The last time Miami faced a solid ground game, Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts dropped 103 rushing yards on 16 carries. Baltimore should have similar success in this contest.
While the Ravens have been especially good on offense, their defense deserves some recognition as well. This unit held the Los Angeles Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert to six points a couple of weeks ago, so they're certainly capable of a strong performance. The Dolphins are far from an intimidating offensive team, as they've never surpassed 20 points against a decent defensive team. Tagovailoa has struggled against good defenses his entire career, and it seems unlikely that changes here if he plays. If it winds up being Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, that only makes life easier for Baltimore.
Why the Dolphins Could Cover The Spread
Despite some good defensive performances, the Ravens have certainly shown some weakness on that side of the ball. The Ravens allow 282 passing yards per game, good for second-worst in the entire NFL. Tagovailoa has already torn apart similarly terrible pass defenses in the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Atlanta Falcons. In those two games, Miami's starting signal-caller tossed for 620 yards and six touchdowns. As long as the offensive line doesn't completely cripple this team, the Dolphins should be able to move the ball down the field efficiently, no matter the quarterback.
The Ravens will enter this game with one of the most concerning injury reports in the NFL. It feels like half of their starting defense is already on injured reserve, and starting safety DeShon Elliott was just added to the list. Starting wide receivers Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown are questionable for this contest, along with starting right tackle Patrick Mekhari. Lead running back Latavius Murray also missed the first practice of the week. Miami should be facing a weakened version of the Ravens at home in prime time. This is the definition of a trap game.
Final Ravens-Dolphins Prediction & Pick
This is a fairly easy pick. The Ravens have played down to their competition all season long, and now they go on the road on a short week to face an improving Miami team. Take the Dolphins to cover the two-score spread here.
Final Ravens-Dolphins Pick: Miami Dolphins: +7.5 (-110)