The Washington Commanders are set to square off against the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium in the first preseason game for each team. It's time to continue our NFL preseason odds series with a Commanders-Chiefs prediction and pick.
Washington stormed back from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit against the Carolina Panthers last week on a pair of touchdown runs by rookie quarterback Sam Howell, pulling ahead by one with just over two minutes left with a successful two-point conversion attempt. However, the comeback was all for naught, as Carolina kicker Zane Gonzalez drilled a 45-yard field goal with 24 seconds left to secure a 23-21 win for the Panthers.
The Chiefs also suffered a narrow loss in their preseason debut, allowing a 14-0 lead to slip out of their grasp. The Chicago Bears — led by a pair of second-half touchdown throws by Trevor Siemian — rallied to score the final 19 points of the game to win 19-14.
Here are the Commanders-Chiefs NFL preseason odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Preseason Odds: Commanders-Chiefs Odds
Washington Commanders: +5.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 44 (-110)
Under: 44 (-110)
Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread
Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz had a fairly successful performance in his first outing since being traded to Washington, completing 10 of 13 passes for 74 yards with no touchdowns, but also no interceptions. Expect to see him on the field plenty against this week, with head coach Ron Rivera indicated that, outside of a few players that will be on a “pitch count,” the Commanders will likely give their starters an extended look. Perhaps in his second time taking the field in a game with his new team, Wentz will finally be able to create a few of the big plays that were lacking last week.
It is also likely that Howell will receive plenty of reps, with Washington fans hoping he can carry over his success from last week. The North Carolina product nearly doubled Wentz's production on just three more attempts against the Panthers, throwing for 145 yards on 9 of 16 passing in, in addition to his two scores on the ground. Howell will likely get the bulk of the snaps in the second half against Kansas City's backups. Considering the struggles the Chiefs had down the stretch last week, a live bet on the spread at halftime could have some value, especially if Kansas City jumps out to an early lead.
With Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs starters expected to play much of if not all of the first half, Washington will need to find a way to keep it close over the first two quarters. If they can weather the storm from the Chiefs' first-team offense, though, the Commanders will have a decent chance to cash on both the spread and money line. Veteran Chad Henne won't play in this one for Kansas City, meaning Shane Buechele and Dustin Crum — who combined for 117 passing yards, one touchdown, and an interception while averaging under four yards per attempt last week — will be called upon to play significant roles. The fact that the Chiefs' offensive line allowed four sacks in their last game should also generate optimism for Washington backers.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread
With the Kansas City starters expected to play well into the second quarter, the Chiefs should have a clear advantage early on. Patrick Mahomes took 32 snaps in the second preseason game last season, something that bodes well for his team and spells trouble for a Washington first-team defense that gave up 10 points to Carolina in the first quarter last week. Mahomes was limited to one series against the Bears, but made the most of it, leading an 11-play, 72-yard drive while completing 6 of 7 passes for 60 yards and a touchdown.
With Tyreek Hill no longer in the mix, Kansas City did an excellent job of spreading the ball around, with 14 different players recording receptions. limited to one series against the Bears, but made the most of it, leading an 11-play, 72-yard drive while completing 6 of 7 passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. The rushing attack was a bit of a concern — outside of Crum, who ran for 28 yards on three carries, no Kansas City player rushed for more than six yards. However, there is some optimism regarding this area, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire always being a versatile threat out of the backfield, and rookie back Isiah Pacheco displaying promise during training camp.
Final Commanders-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
NFL preseason bets are always a risky proposition, considering the unknowns regarding who will take significant reps. With Mahomes and the bulk of the Chiefs starters expected to play into the second quarter, the first-half bet on Kansas City seems to be a worthwhile play. However, the quarterback scenario seems to favor Washington down the stretch. Howell was productive last week and should avoid Kansas City's first-team defense for the most part, while the Chiefs mustered just seven points after their opening drive. For this reason, the Commanders and the points appear to be the most logical full-game bet here.
Final Commanders-Chiefs Prediction & Pick: Commanders +5.5 (-110)
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