If the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 18 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons will win the NFC South and make the playoffs. If not, there is a good chance owner Arthur Blank decides to fire head coach Arthur Smith, according to a pair of NFL insiders.

“Sources say owner Arthur Blank has been calling people he trusts within the league for advice in recent days — another sign he is weighing potential changes after leaving the door open on Smith's future in recent media interviews, telling Georgia Public Broadcasting in December that while he is ‘committed to Coach Smith,’ he wanted to assess where things stood after the season,” NFL Network insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero wrote on Sunday.

A Falcons loss in Week 18 to the Saints would drop Smith’s record to 7-10 for the third consecutive season. Even if the coach does move to a career-best 8-9, the fact that the 2-14 Panthers likely won’t come to their rival’s aid and beat the Buccaneers means that Atlanta will miss the playoffs again. This will be the third season under Smith and the sixth in a row the Falcons have gone home after the final week of the regular season.

Is the Falcons job a good one?

Arthur Smith breathing sigh of relief, Atlanta Falcon mascot holding on to ledge for playoff spot, NFC South with garbage emoji

If Arthur Blank does decide to fire Arthur Smith, the question will become, who is next?

While it’s probably too early to answer that, we can discuss whether this is a good job that will attract the brightest NFL coaching candidates in the 2024 offseason.

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Smith was one of these in-demand candidates back in 2021. The now-41 former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator hasn’t been able to fully make things click, though, in Georgia.

The Falcons job is a good one, though, if the next coach can solve the one problem Smith couldn’t. This team has an improving defense and plays in the NFC South, the worst division in football. It also has a good offensive line and some incredible young talent on offense, including recent top-10 picks like running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts.

However, the team does not have a quarterback. This season, Smith flip-flopped between Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, and neither could get the job done. Until the franchise figures out the QB conundrum, the coach doesn’t matter all that much.