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Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles pulled off what may go down as one of the shrewdest moves in NFL history last season, trading the 2023 No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. That trade earned the Bears the top pick again in the 2024 NFL Draft, thanks to the Panthers' horrific season, and now Poles has a choice to make. Does he make a Justin Field trade and draft a quarterback at No. 1? Does he keep Fields and make picks Nos. 1 and 9? Or, does he make the best move and trade the first selection and take a QB later in the top 10?
The Bears must trade the No. 1 pick but still take a QB early in the 2024 NFL Draft for three reasons. One is that this is a quarterback-heavy draft. Two is because of the Justin Fields contract. And three is because of what the pick could return.
The 2024 NFL Draft has a lot of intriguing quarterbacks
The last two seasons have been weaker QB classes from a draft perspective, although CJ Stroud, maybe Will Levis, and even Aidan O’Connell have exceeded expectations.
This class has the potential to be big.
USC’s Caleb Williams is a Trevor Lawrence-level prospect and North Carolina’s Drake Maye is not far behind. After that, Heisman winner Jayden Daniels from LSU and the two national championship game signal-callers, Michigan’s JJ McCarthy and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., could all go in Round 1.
Because of this, both trading the No. 1 pick and taking a QB in the first round makes sense.
Williams is a great prospect, but he’s not without his warts. He will fetch a big price in a trade (more on that below) and taking him doesn’t guarantee a franchise quarterback, so giving him to someone else is worth the risk for Ryan Poles and the Bears.
Because Daniels, McCarthy, and Penix Jr. are also solid prospects, taking one in the first is a good move that could easily result in getting a QB of the future. If the Bears trade back just a few spots, they can probably get Daniels with that pick, if they trade back further, McCarthy and Penix Jr. should both be available at No. 9 or even in the teens.
The rookie QB contract clock
The biggest reason to pick a quarterback at any spot in the 2024 NFL Draft for the Bears is the contract. There is nothing more valuable in professional football than having a franchise QB on a rookie deal. This allows a team to bulk up at positions all over the field when you don’t have to pay your signal-caller $40 million a year or more.
And selecting a QB doesn’t have to come with a Justin Fields trade.
Fields looks like he could be a top-15 quarterback in this league someday if he continues to develop. That said, is he a top-five guy who can carry a team to the Super Bowl? Probably not with his passing limitations.
Either way, Fields will only cost the Bears $6,004,713 against the cap next season, but they have to decide this offseason if they want to pick up his fifth-year option worth $21,978,000 for 2025. The best and easiest thing to do to kickstart a rebuild is trade Fields before you have to decide on that option and draft a QB who gives the Bears four seasons before he will make over $20 million and five before he will make $50 plus million if he’s a true top-tier guy.
The picks are too much to say no to
Last but not least is the fact that with Caleb Williams at the top of the 2024 NF Draft, the Bears will be able to get an even bigger haul than they got in 2023 from the Panthers when QB1 was Bryce Young.
In 2023, Ryan Poles got No. 9 and No. 61 in 2023, a 2024 first-round pick, and a 2025 second-round pick, along with star wide receiver DJ Moore. This time around, speculation is that this year, the Bears trading the No. 1 pick could bring back two future first-rounders, some later-round picks, and another premium veteran.
If an offer like that is on the table and the Bears can move back enough to stay in the hunt for a player like Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, or Michael Penix Jr. at their new pick or even at No. 9, then the GM has to take that offer.
Trades up in the NFL draft like this seldom work out for the team moving up. It’s borne out time and time again that the massive picks haul can rebuild a team much faster than one presumed franchise QB, and that’s if the QB hits, which is about a 50/50 chance.
That’s why the Bears should trade the No. 1 pick and still take a quarterback.
