The Chicago Bears are on top of the world heading into Week 14. Chicago defeated Philadelphia 24-15 on Black Friday, improving to 9-3 on the season. The Bears are still on top of the NFC North, holding a slim lead over the Packers, and look exactly as advertised during Ben Johnson's rookie campaign at head coach.
Now the playoffs are just a handful of weeks away, which means that every game counts. And that is especially true in Week 14.
Chicago takes on Green Bay in the first of two matchup between the NFC North powerhouses in the month of December. Sunday's game alone will not decide the division. However, whoever wins this game will have an easy path to locking up the division later this month. And with it, home-field advantage during the first round of the playoffs.
So where do the Bears stack up against the rest of the NFC headed into this big game? And how could a win or loss impact their playoff odds?
Below we will explore Chicago's playoff odds heading into Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season.
Bears playoff odds: DVOA playoff model
FTN Fantasy's DVOA-based playoff model has a surprisingly dim view of the Bears.
Chicago has a 69.7% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 14. Those are good odds, but significantly lower than the Packers who are at 90.4%
That is especially surprising since the Bears are 9-3 and the Packers are 8-3-1. Head-to-head tiebreakers are not in play yet, which suggests that Green Bay is a more fundamentally sound team than Chicago. At least in terms of DVOA.
This would explain the more specific odds related to Chicago too.
The Bears have a 39% chance to make the playoffs as a wild card team, but just 30.7% chance to win the division.
Bears playoff odds: ESPN playoff model
ESPN's playoff model paints a slightly rosier picture for the Bears.
Their model gives Chicago a 76% chance to make the playoffs and a 35% chance to win the NFC North. These aren't big improvements over teh DVOA model, but a slight edge nonetheless.
ESPN gives Chicago a 12% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That has them behind the Rams (30%), Packers (17%), Seahawks (16%), and 49ers (15%).
The Bears only received 5% odds to make the Super Bowl. That matches the Lions, a team currently on the outside of the playoff picture.
I'm sensing a theme of fading the Bears, at least compared to their division opponents, in these playoff models.
Bears playoff odds: The Athletic playoff model
Finally, there's The Athletic's playoff model.
Unlike the others, The Athletic includes the projected final standings for every playoff team in the league. Those projections have the Bears finishing the regular season 11-6 and making the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
In that scenario, the Bears barely miss out on the NFC North crown to the Packers, who finish at 11-5-1.
The Athletic gives Chicago a 77% chance to make the playoffs headed into Week 14. They also have a 36% chance to win the division, a 10% chance at the No. 1 seed, and a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl.
It seems that The Athletic is in lock step with ESPN and FTN Fantasy in fading the Bears.
Perhaps the perception around the Bears, and their playoff odds, will change a lot after Week 14.
How will Week 14 impact Chicago's playoff odds?
Despite what the odds will tell you, this weekend's game means a lot more for the Packers than it does the Bears.
If the Bears win, they will almost certainly guarantee themselves a place in the postseason. They'll also keep their hopes at the No. 1 seed alive and could position themselves to win the NFC North. And if Chicago loses, they could get back on top of Green Bay by beating Cleveland in Week 15 then winning their rematch with Green Bay in Week 16.
Meanwhile, if the Packers do not have the same luxury if they lose in Week 14. In that scenario, the Packers could beat the Broncos in Week 15 and the Bears in Week 16 and still be behind them in the division standings.
That makes this sound like a win-win scenario for the Bears, but that's not the attitude to take here.
If Chicago takes care of business on Sunday, they'll be in the driver's seat in the NFC. That should be motivation enough for Ben Johnson's guys to get a win at any cost.
It will be fascinating to see what Chicago's odds look like after Week 14.
