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The Dallas Cowboys Week 10 matchup with the Green Bay Packers was supposed to be a ‘Game of the Week' type game. The Cowboys lived up to their end of the bargain. They are 6-2, coming off their bye week and looking to track down the Philadelphia Eagles atop the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Packers have lost five straight games with Aaron Rodgers and the offense struggling mightily.
Green Bay is coming off a deflating 15-9 loss to the Detroit Lions. During the game, Rodgers threw a career-high three interceptions in the red zone. It's somewhat ironic considering prior to that game, he stated people struggling ought to be benched. I wonder if he would say the same thing about himself entering the Cowboys game.
While the Packers are headed toward obscurity, the Cowboys have hopes of a division title and deep playoff run. The offense has started to look explosive again with Dak Prescott back under center. Dallas' run game continues to be effective, whether that's with Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard in the backfield. But it's been the Cowboys defense that has made them contenders.
With these two teams headed in opposite directions, let's take a look at the Cowboys Week 10 predictions for their game against the Packers.
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4. Tony Pollard runs wild, again
Ezekiel Elliott missed Week 8 with a minor knee injury. Considering the Cowboys had their bye the following week, they opted to be cautious with the former All-Pro running back. In his absence, Pollard ran roughshod over the Chicago Bears. He rushed for a career-high 131 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 carries.
All season, most of the football public and media alike have been on board with Pollard being the better running back in Dallas. It's not a shot at Elliott. He simply is past his prime and has been run into the ground. Pollard, on the other hand, is an explosive playmaker who is quick, elusive and powerful.
It was believed that Elliott would return and take his starting job back this week. However, after a limited practice Wednesday, Elliott appeared to hint at the idea that he might sit this week again.
The Packers defense was expected to be among the league's best units. That has not come to fruition. They rank 26th in the NFL, allowing 138.6 rushing yards per game. I would expect another heavy dosage of Pollard, who will finish north of 100 yards and another touchdown.
3. Cowboys defense sacks Aaron Rodgers 3 times
As I mentioned previously, it's been the Cowboys defense that has carried the day this year. They have been particularly great at getting to the quarterback. Dallas leads the NFL with 33 sacks this year. Keep in mind, they have already had their bye week.
All the while, the Packers have struggled protecting Aaron Rodgers. He has been one of the more pressured QB's in the league, but has somehow only been sacked 18 times. I think we may see that rate change Sunday. Green Bay has not seen a front seven like the one the Cowboys possess. Micah Parsons is following up his stellar rookie year with another one. Most people have him leading the race for NFL Defensive Player of the Year at the midway point of the season.
With the Packers' inability to finish drives, the Cowboys might very well find themselves ahead for much of this game. If that were to happen, Parsons and company can tee off and go to work on a battered Green Bay offensive line.
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Rodgers will get sacked at least three times this week.
2. Packers RB's held to less than 100 rushing yards
It's no secret the Packers want to run the football. That's because they need to run the football. It is the only path to success for this offense. Dallas has shown it can be taken advantage of on the ground at times this year. But in order for that to happen, Aaron Jones would have to be the guy.
Jones suffered an ankle injury last week in the third quarter and did not return. He returned to practice on a limited basis and might be able to suit up. But even if he does, he will be nowhere near 100 percent. That is a big problem as he has been the only consistently productive player they have on offense. AJ Dillon, coming off a great rookie season, has fallen flat on his face this year. I mean that both figuratively and literally.
Dillon is a big back that needs to get a head of steam to hit the hole. This season, he has been hit behind the line of scrimmage seemingly as much as any tailback in the NFL. That's led to a precipitous drop off in yards after contact.
I would blame AJ Dillon's decline from 3.37 to 3.06 to 2.84 yards after contact per att. from 2020-22 on small samples and a fall in the #Packers run block win% from 1st to 4th to 21st.
Except Aaron Jones leads the position with 3.71 YACon/Att this year.pic.twitter.com/r7DpvCm65C
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 7, 2022
He is averaging just 2.84 yards after contact compared to the league-leading Jones with 3.71. With a hampered Jones and Dillon struggling, along with the Cowboys likely leading for a large portion of this game, it would make sense we see a lot of Rodgers drop backs and less rushing attempts.
1. Cowboys improve to 7-2 with win over Packers
It's hard to find many reasons why Green Bay should even stay in this game. Maybe Dak Prescott turns the ball over a couple times, or maybe there is a big special teams play. But it's going to take all of that for this just to be a game. Let's face it. The Packers are a bad football team. The Cowboys are a good football team coming off a bye.
This shouldn't be all that close. Cowboys win, 26-14.
