The calendar says the NFL is in the home stretch of the regular season but the matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Green Bay Packers in the Mile High City is shouting Super Bowl preview.
The Broncos (11-2) are fighting for the top spot in the AFC playoff structure against the New England Patriots. Denver has reeled off 10 straight victories and head coach Sean Payton has a team that has played effectively on offense and dominated on defense. Bo Nix leads an attack that ranks 10th in total offense, as the Broncos are averaging 342.0 yards per game. The defense has been able to choke off opponents as that unit ranks 3rd in yards allowed (282.0) and is 4th in points given up per game (18.1).
The Packers (9-3-1) appear to be built in a similar matter with quarterback Jordan Love and edge rusher Micah Parsons leading the way. The Green Bay offense ranks 14th in total yards with 340.3 per game and slightly better in points with an average of 24.8 points. The defense regularly chokes off opponents as the Packers are 5th in yards allowed (287.2) and 6th in points per game (19.0).
This game could come down to special teams performance late in the 4th quarter. That would seem to be an edge for the Broncos, because Wil Lutz has made 20 of 23 field goal attempts, including 3 of 5 from beyond the 50. Brandon McManus has battled injuries and has made 15 of 21 three-point attempts.
Look for Nix to throw for 225-plus yards and 2 touchdowns
The key in this game may be the matchup between Payton and Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Payton needs to put Bo Nix in an advantageous position so he can find his receivers and also pick up key yards on the ground when he senses an opening. That means he has to avoid Micah Parsons throughout the game.
It is unlikely either coach will win by a knockout, but expect Payton to do just a bit more than Hafley in this matchup. Nix is a confident leader who has a full understanding of the Broncos offense. He will occasionally show some scatter-arm tendencies, but he is usually at his best at the most critical moments. Nix has completed 297 of 470 throws for 2,954 yards with 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.
He has a big-play receiver in Courtland Sutton who has caught 56 passes for 773 yards and 5 touchdowns. Sutton is likely to see a lot of double coverage, but he can use his speed and athleticism to high point the ball when the Broncos need it most. Fellow wideout Troy Franklin is a solid No. 2 pass catcher who has been a key contributor with 51-541-5.
The Broncos running game has had a positive impact all season with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey making impact plays on a regular basis. Dobbins has rushed for 772 yards and 4 touchdowns, Harvey has 354 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, and the success of the ground attack could tone down Parsons' pass rush.
The dynamic former Cowboys should have 1 sack, but the Broncos offensive line will keep him from dominating.
Broncos defense must limit Love to 200 yards and 1 TD pass
Jordan Love can be one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league when he is on a hot streak, but the Denver defense should be able to keep him in check.
Linebacker Alex Singleton is a brilliant defender who leads the Broncos with 103 tackles and 1 forced fumble, and while veteran defensive back Talanoa Hufanga is a game change who has 94 stops, 5 tackles for loss and 10 passes defensed.
The Denver defense will do just enough to keep Love from having a brilliant game. The Packers quarterback has completed 259 of 386 passes for 3,028 yards with 22 TD passes and just 4 interceptions.
Romeo Doubs is Green Bay's leading receiver with 45 catches for 542 yards and 5 TDs, but the most dangerous pass catcher is explosive Christian Watson. He has the dynamic speed needed to make big plays and he has caught 25-452-5. Watson is averaging a team-high 18.08 yards per catch.
Running back Josh Jacobs is a solid and dependable ground gainer who has take a number of big hits throughout his career and may have slowed down by a half-step. He has 817 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, but he is not usually a breakaway threat as he is averaging 3.97 yards per carry.
Broncos will outlast the Packers
Green Bay is coming off a vital win over the Chicago Bears and moved into first place in the NFC North by one-half game over the Monsters of the Midway. The two teams play again in Week 16, and the belief here is that the Packers will be back in second place for that rematch.
The Broncos will take advantage of their home field, their hard-hitting defense and their special teams advantage to pull out the late victory over the Packers
