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The Denver Broncos have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2024 NFL season. Denver is 6-5 heading into Week 12 and is greatly exceeding their preseason expectations. The Broncos may not be shoe-ins for the playoffs, but with a record over .500 and a handful of winnable games still on their schedule, it is easy to imagine them becoming a wild card team.
Head coach Sean Payton is beginning to work wonders in Denver despite being hamstrung by Russell Wilson's dead money. Denver plays sound football on defense and plays good, not great, on offense. That has been enough to beat up on some of their weaker opponents. The Broncos have also come this close to beating legit AFC superpowers like the Chiefs.
Next up for the Broncos is a Week 12 matchup against the Raiders. The 2024 season has not been kind to Las Vegas, between QB controversy and trading away Davante Adams to the Jets. They know Denver well as division rivals, but I'm not sure I can convince myself that they're a huge challenge for a surging Broncos team.
Can the Broncos continue to roll against a lowly Raiders team? Or will Denver fall victim to a dreaded “trap game” against a division rival?
Below we will discuss three Broncos bold predictions head of their Week 12 matchup against the Raiders.
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Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix will show off against the Raiders defense
Bo Nix may not win offensive rookie of the year, but he is already exceeding expectations.
He has thrown for 2,275 yards with 14 touchdowns and only six interceptions on the season. Those are not eye-popping stats, but they look more like an average NFL QB's ratings than a rookie quarterback on a talent-poor team.
Nix truly broke out last week against the Falcons, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns. Nix had a completion percentage of 84.8% and a QB rating of 145.0.
Nix doesn't need a repeat performance to beat the Raiders.
My prediction: Bo Nix has another great game against the Raiders. He does not put up the gaudy numbers like he did in Week 11, but his efficiency is incredible. Nix will have a completion percentage of at least 70% and a passer rating over 100.0. The Broncos will have an easy time winning this game if that happens and Nix avoids costly turnovers.
The Broncos pound the Raiders with plenty of Javonte Williams and Audric Estime
The running game is very important for the success of Denver's offense.
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One reason why the Broncos are hard to defend against in the running game is that it could come from almost anyone or anywhere. Javonte Williams is the lead back, but he shares time with Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin. Bo Nix also gets in on the fun every so often as well.
Javonte Williams has 112 carries for 447 yards and three touchdowns on the year so far. Rookie running back Audric Estime has been pitching in nicely over the past few weeks. He has 20 carries for 69 yards over the last two games, and his work load looks like it will only increase.
I see this game being a coming out party for the duo of Williams and Estime.
My prediction: Denver will commit to running the football early and often against the Raiders. Javonte Williams and Audric Estime will combine for over 25 carries and accumulate more than 150 rushing yards. The Broncos could probably win by forcing Bo Nix to throw a ton of passes, but running the ball is a safe way to chew up clock and limit possessions. I don't see why the Broncos would want to take unnecessary risks against a division opponent.
Denver's defense forces three Las Vegas turnovers to help win the game
The Broncos have a sneaky great defense in 2024.
Denver's defense is not necessarily dripping with talent. However, they post great numbers in terms of both run and pass defense.
This defense is very opportunistic and is one of the better units at forcing turnovers this season. They are in the top half of the league in terms of interceptions forced with eight. What's more impressive is that they have 201 interception return yards, which suggests they are forcing turnovers on high-leverage plays down the field. That is the most in the NFL, by the way.
Denver's defense keeps rolling against a limited Raiders attack.
My prediction: The Broncos force at least three turnovers, making life very difficult for Gardner Minshew and the rest of the Raiders' offense. If Denver can force that many takeaways, and not surrender many themselves, then it is hard to imagine the Broncos walking away with a loss in this one.
