Few games on the Week 12 slate carry the same magnitude and urgency as Colts-Chiefs on the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) arrive after a rejuvenating bye week. They enter playing the best football of any team in the AFC and boasting the league’s top scoring offense. Their surprising ascent under quarterback Daniel Jones and MVP frontrunner Jonathan Taylor has made them one of the NFL’s toughest outs. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) are staring down the rare prospect of a lost season. That's something virtually unthinkable in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Battle at Arrowhead
Indianapolis rolls into Kansas City with the swagger of a contender. They average 32.1 points per game and nearly 400 yards of offense. The Colts have built a dynamic, balanced attack behind Jones’ efficiency and Taylor’s takeover ability. Their offense excels at marrying play-action concepts with downhill power. Well, Kansas City happens to be one of the league’s worst defenses at handling exactly that combination. Coming off a bye, the Colts should be sharper, healthier, and more explosive as they attempt to take control of the AFC race.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is fighting for its life. The Chiefs enter on a two-game slide after losses to the Bills and Broncos. KC endured penalties, turnovers, and stalled drives in both contests. Mahomes has played at an MVP level but has been asked to compensate for an offense that lacks consistency. The Chiefs’ defense has been the bright spot this season. Even that unit, though, cracked against Denver and failed to pressure the quarterback. Playing at Arrowhead with their season in jeopardy, Kansas City must find answers quickly.
This is a desperation game for Kansas City and a validation game for Indianapolis.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Chiefs and the Colts in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season.
Colts’ defense shuts down Patrick Mahomes
It feels quite bold to predict any team shutting down Mahomes. That said, if there was ever a week to expect it, this is the one. The Chiefs’ offense has been uncharacteristically sloppy, undermining Mahomes’ brilliance. The Colts, conversely, boast one of the NFL’s most disciplined defenses. They have allowed just 20.6 points per game and rank near the top of the league in quarterback pressure.
The midseason acquisition of Sauce Gardner has transformed Indianapolis’ secondary. Paired with a ferocious pass rush spearheaded by Laiatu Latu, the Colts suddenly have the personnel to disrupt Mahomes’ timing and force him into risky off-platform throws. Mahomes will commit multiple turnovers as the Colts dictate the pace defensively.
Jonathan Taylor rushes for over 150 yards
Very few teams have had an answer for Jonathan Taylor this season. Kansas City won’t be the exception. The Chiefs have quietly fielded one of the NFL’s leakiest run defenses. They have surrendered big totals multiple times this year. Against a Colts team built to run with power, tempo, and physicality, this matchup slants heavily toward Indianapolis.
Taylor has fresh legs combined with one of the league’s best run-blocking units. He erupted for 244 yards and three touchdowns in Week 10. He will clear the 150-yard threshold again. Taylor will also score at least one touchdown, controlling the tempo and keeping Mahomes on the sideline.
Chiefs’ offensive woes continue
The Chiefs are still the Chiefs. This year’s version, however, is flawed in ways that have finally caught up to them. Their offensive line is penalty-prone and run game inconsistent. In addition, their receivers have struggled to create separation in big moments. Against the Colts, this is a nightmare matchup.
The Colts’ improved secondary, now anchored by Gardner and a deep rotation, matches up well with Kansas City’s pass catchers. The Chiefs have also struggled mightily against play-action, meaning Kansas City’s defense could spend long stretches on its heels. Kansas City will fail to surpass 17 points. The Chiefs will continue their offensive slide and once again leave Mahomes to do too much with too little support.
Colts will win in the final minute
This game has all the makings of late-game drama. We will see Arrowhead energy, star quarterbacks, two teams fighting for playoff position. That said, the Colts’ balanced roster and elite offensive identity will be the deciding factor.
Despite being betting underdogs on paper, Indianapolis will march down the field in the final minute behind Jones’ poise and Taylor’s unstoppable power. They will successfully reach the endzone for the touchdown that will seal the game in the final minute. They Colts will leave Kansas City with a 28-20 victory and send Arrowhead into stunned silence.
Final thoughts
Indianapolis is no fluke. The Colts are built to win games like this. Kansas City is no pushover, too. In Week 12, though, one team arrives at Arrowhead fresher, deeper, and more complete. And that team is the Indianapolis Colts. A new AFC contender stakes its claim—right in the kingdom.
