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The Jacksonville Jaguars have the look of a contender. They have a 5-2 record through five games; only the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have a better record at the moment. They have a +27 point differential; that mark is the eighth-best in the NFL as things stand. Trevor Lawrence is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and he is stocked with weapons, which include Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram. Their defense also ranks seventh in EPA per play allowed, trailing only the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, and Kansas City Chiefs.
They've been playing well, but they could also always afford to add some reinforcements before the trade deadline next week. Plenty of talented players could become available between now and the deadline. The question is, who could the Jaguars afford and where on their roster could they use some help? What's a trade that could address both questions?
Trade: Jacksonville Jaguars trade a fourth-round pick to the Green Bay Packers for Preston Smith
Why Jacksonville does it
Perhaps the biggest area of Jacksonville's roster that needs reinforcements is their pass rush. According to ESPN's pass rush win rate metric, the Jaguars' pass rush is about middle of the pack. They only rank 20th in that stat. They also simply haven't gotten much production from anybody on their roster outside of Josh Allen. Allen has seven sacks on the season; the rest of the team has combined for six sacks. Having a stud on the front like Allen is great. Still, playing in a conference against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa and a few rising stars like CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson, the Jags need more consistency from their pass rush outside of one guy.
Preston Smith could be that guy. Smith's play has taken a bit of a step back this season; he only has two sacks in six games after posting at least 8.5 sacks in three of his previous four seasons with the Packers. But he's an accomplished pass rusher who helps out in the run game, which is important to the Jaguars.
There are plenty of other pass rushers who could become available. Players like Washington's Chase Young, Minnesota's Danielle Hunter, and Carolina's Brian Burns have had their names on the rumor mill at some point this season. Those three (and others) are better players than Preston Smith, but Smith would probably be the most attainable of the four and may not require a Day 2 draft pick to acquire him. He'd be a nice boost to Jacksonville's pass rush.
Why Green Bay does it
The Green Bay Packers don't look like they'll be competing for the postseason this season. They aren't out of the hunt for a playoff spot, but they're closer to a top-five pick than a playoff spot as things stand now with their 2-4 record. They only have a -2 point differential and three of their four losses have come by totals of one, two, and four points. But their offense has been nonexistent in their last three games, all of which have been losses with two of those coming at the hands of the lowly Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos.
There isn't a ton of financial reasons to trade Preston Smith, but there are some. According to Ken Ingalls, the Packers would save about $1 million this season and about $2.5 million next season.
After drafting Lukas Van Ness in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and getting Rashan Gary back from his torn ACL he suffered a year ago, adding more draft capital for a 30-year-old veteran after a 2-4 start seems like the more prudent thing to do for the Packers. If their asking price isn't as high for Smith as the price is for other pass rushers, they and the Jaguars should be able to get a deal done that helps both sides.
