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Patrick Mahomes and the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs will face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium this week. Here are our Patrick Mahomes Week 3 predictions as he plays a winless Colts squad that is still looking for its groove.
The Kansas City Chiefs are back on the road for Week 3 after a good homestand against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2. They face an Indianapolis Colts team that has yet to win despite playing against two teams that they should have beaten.
For the Chiefs, the key to this game is jumping out to an early lead. If the Colts are playing from behind, it’s going to force Matt Ryan to throw the ball as opposed to Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines running the ball. That’s the biggest strength that this Colts team has against a team like Kansas City —- running the ball and keeping it out of Mahomes’ hands.
With these in mind, here are our three bold predictions for Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs' Week 3 matchup against the Colts.
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Will Patrick Mahomes extend the longest active TD streak without an INT on Sunday? #ChiefsKingdom | #NFL pic.twitter.com/J59j0kEEdb
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 24, 2022
3. Patrick Mahomes spreads the wealth again
The Chiefs' biggest concern this offseason is what Mahomes would accomplish without Tyreek Hill. So far, the solution has been to evenly distribute the extra touches across his vast stable of receivers. He should do the same in the Chiefs-Colts game in Week 3.
Travis Kelce, who has 13 receptions for 172 yards this season, is Mahomes' favorite target. However, Mahomes also has ten other pass-catchers with receptions, and none of them have double-digit catches. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each have at least six receptions but no more than nine.
The wonderful thing about Mahomes spreading the wealth is that he has done a good job of keeping teams guessing about where he'll go next.
2. Patrick Mahomes gets sacked just once
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The Colts will have a lot of trouble stopping Mahomes this week. To illustrate, pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue was demoted from limited to not practicing on Thursday. That's not good, especially considering that he and the Colts' other high-priced defensive linemen haven't been very effective this season. This reduces the probability of effectively pressuring Mahomes into many errors.
Still, the Colts have leaned on other defensive specialists to sack opposing QBs. They've averaged 1.5 sacks per game so far, with Kwity Paye and E.J. Sneed leading the way. Both will look to bottle up Mahomes, who has been sacked just once so far. Remember that he got sacked in Week 1 against the Chargers. Don't be shocked if the Colts manage to sack him once in their home opener.
1. Patrick Mahomes goes above 100.0 passer rating again
Mahomes' okay days are still better than a good day for most of the NFL. Despite three turnovers, he's 22-3 against the AFC West, and the Chargers were his latest victims. His field awareness, sidearm skills, and steadfast attitude portray a quarterback who is happy with his day job.
Apart from his individual brilliance, however, Mahomes just happens to do extra well against the Colts and their new defensive coordinator. The Colts are in their first season under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, whom Mahomes has faced seven times in the past. In those previous games, Mahomes scored 17 touchdowns and threw only two picks.
Don't be shocked if the Chiefs' top quarterback shows out once more against a Bradley-helmed defense. It's happened before, and the 56-year-old's recent comments about facing Mahomes and his habits early in this season might indicate that everything is aligning for another monster Mahomes performance in Week 3.
Fans should expect Mahomes to have plenty of time this week to slice apart the Colts' feeble defense. Take note that they are currently 23rd in pressure rate. In terms of pass defense DVOA, Indianapolis ranks 29th, and they also allow the 12th most net yards per pass. Furthermore, the Colts have given up the fourth-highest passer rating and the tenth-highest passing touchdown rate.
Meanwhile, Mahomes owns the seventh-highest deep passer rating so far and should work the ball deep against a secondary that ranks 28th in DVOA versus deep throwing. In layman's terms, Mahomes is more than ready and capable to round up these Colts and give them another L. Count on him to go for 280+ yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 INTs.
