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After taking a brutal loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 5, the Las Vegas Raiders are looking to make a change.
That's right, after benching Gardner Minshew at the end of the third quarter for Aidan O'Connell, Antonio Pierce was unwilling to commit to his starting quarterback for Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with both men seemingly up for the starting spot.
But who should it be? Should the Raiders continue on with Minshew under center, as they paid him long-level starting money to do just that in 2024? Or should they give their fourth-round Boilermaker a shot to see what he can do without worrying about a bad throw sending him back to the bench?
Well, while folks will debate the question ad nauseam, as some may want to keep racing towards the playoffs while others may be more willing to pull the ripcord, when it comes right down to it, there really shouldn't be any discussion at all, as the job should be O'Connell's long-term, with the very need to keep Minshew on the roster a far more interesting topic of conversation.
1. Gardner Minshew is who he is in 2024
Gardner Minshew has been in the NFL since all the way back in 2019.
He's had a pair of incredible seasons in Jacksonville. He's faded into obscurity as a backup in Philadelphia. And then, in 2023, his fifth professional season, Minshew found success as a second-chance starter with the Colts, leading the team to a 7-6 record while throwing for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on the way to the Pro Bowl. When he's on and surrounded by good players, Minshew can shine, operating an offense effectively while taking the occasional shot down the field when he picks his spot.
But on a bad team? On a bad team, he's, well, what he's done for the Raiders in 2024. For all of the hullabaloo about Minshew as a gunslinger, he's actually had his most efficient season in the NFL thus far, completing 70.7 percent of his passes even if he's thrown an interception on 3.6 percent of his passes.
If the Raiders were committed to fielding the best game team possible, bringing back Davante Adams, and even implementing the team with additional players at the deadline, maybe Las Vegas could squeak out a few more wins and even a Wildcard spot, but few fans really expect Minshew to start long-term, right? Goodness, if JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, or even Michael Pennix Jr. was around at pick 13, he likely wouldn't be starting at all or would be a bridge QB like Jacoby Brissett in New England.
For better or worse, Minshew is what he is, a low-end QB1 who needs a perfect situation to succeed like Geno Smith in Seattle; while that may eventually come for “MinshewMania,” it feels very unlikely in Las Vegas.
2. Aidan O'Connell still has room to grow
Unlike Minshew, who is who he is at this point, O'Connell's ceiling in the NFL is anything but defined.
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A fourth-round pick out of Purdue with just 13 NFL appearances – 10 starts – on his resume, O'Connell has only thrown 375 passes, completing 232 of them for 2,394 yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. There have been games where he looked like a true star in the making, like his efforts against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season. There have been games where he looked downright bad like his 2023 Week 11 loss to the Miami Dolphins, and there have been others still where he's simply been a guy, where someone like Minshew could likely lap him if afforded the same opportunity.
But who is O'Connell long-term? Is he the guy who crushed the Chargers? Or the player who was picked off three times against the Dolphins?
The answer is simple, really: play him and find out.
With 12 games left to play in the NFL regular season, O'Connell could easily drop back 400 more times in 2024 if he was afforded every QB snap moving forward. Maybe he'd shine, leading his team to an 8-4 record on the way to a surprise playoff berth. Maybe he'd struggle, winning three games against the dregs of the NFL, and then hand over his role to someone like Carson Beck in 2025, assuming he isn't traded like so many other ex-NFL starters in 2024?
The only real way to find out is to give O'Connell a chance to prove what kind of player he can be without having Minshew breathing down his neck, where one horrible interception won't send him to the bench forever, and he can hopefully bounce back based on sheer on-field effort. Considering the alternative, Minshew leading the team to nothing much without knowing what O'Connell can be long-term, there really doesn't feel like any other alternative.
3. The Raiders can still trade Gardner Minshew
So, if the Raiders aren't sold on the idea of playing O'Connell because he's better than Minshew, there's one more reason why O'Connell should be the guy moving forward: Minshew has more trade value.
That's right; imagine what kind of price the Miami Dolphins would pay to have Minshew throwing passes instead of Tyler Huntley moving forward as they desperately cling to a Wildcard spot in the AFC East. A fourth-round pick? A third? And that's not all; Derek Carr just suffered an injury with an unclear timeline in the Saints' Week 5 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Would they really value a mid-round pick over a chance to compete for the playoffs in a wide-open NFC South, especially considering the alternative is playing rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler?
If the Raiders want to reload for 2025, when they will once again have a chance at a true franchise quarterback, what better way to do it than to acquire future draft capital for a player who is an unnecessary luxury and give their young QB a shot to sink or swim with literally everything on the line. That pressure might just create diamonds… or punch their ticket to the top of the draft.
