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The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the top stories in the NFL this season. The marriage of Jim Harbaugh with a team that has been a perennial disappointment appears to be one that is working extremely well.
The Chargers were a last-place, 5-12 team in 2023 and to a team with legitimate playoff aspirations after winning 7 of their first 10 games. The Chargers are doing it in a manner that appeals to Harbaugh. They are playing tough and effective defense and combining that with outstanding quarterback play and a productive running game.
Harbaugh used that formula to win a national championship with Michigan last season and had also been successful in his previous NFL stop with the San Francisco 49ers. There really is not much of a mystery with the Harbaugh formula. In it's simplest form, Harbaugh's team play mistake-free offense and tough, hard-hitting defense.
That's not fancy or tough to figure out, but it is winning football. The Chargers defeated the Bengals 34-27 in Week 11 and the arrow is definitely pointing up. But they are in the same division with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the same conference with the explosive Buffalo Bills, the hard-hitting Steelers and the suddenly charging Miami Dolphins.
The Chargers are a good team, but they are not Super Bowl contenders.
Justin Herbert is the Chargers greatest asset
The Chargers have a Super Bowl-quality quarterback in Justin Herbert. He has all the measurables, including size, strength, athleticism, accuracy and timing. The only thing that has held Herbert back at any point in his career since getting drafted out of Oregon in 2020 is the injury factor.
When he is healthy, Herbert can make any throw that is required, including the deep out to the sidelines — generally considered to be the toughest throw in the NFL. Herbert and the Chargers don't have a veteran crew of receivers and their numbers are not overwhelming, but they are extremely efficient.
Herbert has completed 176 of 277 passes for 2,186 yards with a 13-1 touchdown to interception ratio. The quarterback has also shown he can run when protection breaks down. He has gained 182 yards on 41 carries and has 1 TD. Herbert is playing with extreme confidence and he has the belief of his coaches and his teammates.
Herbert's numbers would likely be more impressive if he had more veteran receivers on his side. Rookie Ladd McConkey plays with effort and is quite effective, but he is still learning. Nevertheless, he is the team's leading receiver with 43 catches for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns. Josh Palmer has caught 20-365-1, while improving Quentin Johnston has 22-354-6 and has become a touchdown machine.
Even if Herbert had an All-Pro wideout on his side, the Chargers would not be throwing the ball all over the field. That's because they can run the ball with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Mistakes happen far less frequently when the running game is emphasized, and Dobbins has proved that. He has rushed for 726 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has not fumbled once.
Chargers are good team on the rise, but beneath Chiefs, Bills and Steelers
The Chargers are clearly redefining themselves and becoming a solid football team. In addition to the versatility on offense, they have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. They are allowing just 14.5 points per game, and that's more than 2 points better than the second-ranked Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell's team is considered the best team in the NFL.
Even if the Chargers have all aspects of their game working well at the same time, they simply don't have the experience to compete with the Chiefs or Bills in the biggest games.
Should the Chargers get to the point where they have to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason or Josh Allen and the Bills, those games will be learning experiences. Mahomes is just too tough to beat when the money is on the table in the postseason.
The Chiefs may seem vulnerable in the regular season because they play so many close games, but the team is polished and powerful in the postseason. The Chargers may be able to give the Chiefs a scare when they go to Kansas City in Week 14 and a win could be a possibility. But once Mahomes is in the postseason, he is at his best when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter.
Allen may not be as pristine as Mahomes, but he may be the most physically talented quarterback in the NFL. He has been through too much to let an opportunity against an inexperienced team like the Chargers slip through his grasp.
The Chargers will have their time, but it won't be in the upcoming postseason. However, the experience they are gaining will help them in future seasons when they will have a chance to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
