The 2026 NFL offseason is fully underway, with the annual combine kicking off draft season just around the corner. With more players set to participate in the combine than usual, scouts have their best chance to evaluate physicals in one place.
Although Fernando Mendoza will not throw, continuing the trend of projected No. 1 picks forgoing the combine, several other high-profile prospects will be in action in Indianapolis. Caleb Downs, Jeremiyah Love, Ty Simpson and Arvell Reese highlight the first-round prospects expected to work out in front of scouts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The combine is typically where players improve their draft stock, but in some cases, it can also take a hit. The inherent risk it presents is the leading reason why projected top-10 picks tend to skip the event.
With the 2026 NFL Combine set to begin on Feb. 26, a few prospects have more on the line at the overlooked event than others.
QB Ty Simpson
Alabama's Ty Simpson is trending toward becoming the No. 2 quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft class behind Fernando Mendoza, but he is closer to being No. 5 than he is No. 1. Many still view the All-SEC signal-caller as a first-round prospect, even if it is almost by default.
Despite the underwhelming quarterback class, Simpson still needs to show out at the combine to prove himself as a first-round talent. That might be easier said than done for a slender 6-foot-2, 180-pound player who has never been the strongest or most athletic prospect on paper.
Simpson is not a bad athlete; he is just not potent enough to turn heads at the combine. In the best-case scenario, he maintains his position as the second-best quarterback of the class. But in the worst-case scenario, he could fall to the third or fourth round with a poor performance.
As of February, there are more questions than answers with Simpson, who ended his only year as a starter at Alabama on a concerning low note. He desperately needs strong combine numbers to silence his doubters.
CB D'Angelo Ponds
D'Angelo Ponds might be the best cornerback of the 2026 NFL Draft if he were even average-sized for the position. Unfortunately, he is not, and his 5-foot-9, 173-pound frame is the biggest concern for scouts after he helped Indiana win a national title.
Right now, Ponds' physical concerns are just hypothetical. They did not stop him from locking up the best receivers in college football all season long, but many still believe he will not be able to handle the physicality in the NFL.
However, if Ponds has an underwhelming outing at the combine, those concerns suddenly become very real. Ponds should not even consider doing the bench press, as those faint numbers would only provide more reason to doubt him.
The one area in which Ponds is expected to thrive is the 40-yard dash. The junior can bolster his stock with a good 40 time, but if he disappoints, his second-round draft projection could quickly plummet into early Day Three range.
DE R Mason Thomas
Scouts are already aware of R Mason Thomas' physical shortcomings, yet he is still a projected first-rounder on most mock draft boards. The Florida native can thank players like Byron Young, Nik Bonitto and Will Anderson Jr. for increasing the trend of undersized edge-rushers to make that possible.
Thomas recorded only 6.5 sacks in 2025, but did so in just nine games while battling leg injuries for most of the year. His impressive senior campaign came after he broke out with a career-high nine sacks in 2024.
Thomas will still squeeze into the back end of the first round, but the pressure is on for him to perform at the NFL Combine. Everyone expects him to lead the position group in everything speed-related, from the 40-yard dash to the short shuttle. His failure to do so would be a huge blow to his NFL Draft stock.
Barring an injury, Thomas is one of the favorites to be the 2026 NFL Combine star. Even though all indications point to him having a big week in Indianapolis, he still has a lot to lose if he falls short of his lofty expectations.
QB Diego Pavia
Diego Pavia is a player who has a lot to gain at the 2026 NFL Draft Combine, but also a lot to lose. Pavia's final draft placement will likely depend on his performance at the combine and at Vanderbilt's Pro Day.
As an undersized 24-year-old prospect with subpar arm talent, Pavia is already fighting an uphill battle. He is a better passer than many give him credit for, but he is also much smaller than the traditional dual-threat prospect.
Pavia is neither the biggest nor the fastest quarterback in the draft, which are both disappointing traits for a run-first player with unimpressive throwing mechanics. There is a chance that his 40-yard dash time could underwhelm and potentially be bested by players like Garrett Nussmeier or Cade Klubik, which would be a horrible look for Pavia.
Pavia also relied on a heavy dosage of throwing on the run at Vanderbilt. The empty bootleg sets supported his accuracy numbers, but he could struggle during throwing drills at the combine, particularly on his deep balls.
With a good showing at the NFL Combine, Pavia can turn himself into a late-Day Two prospect. He could also fall into the seventh-round range, making him one of the players with the most on the line in Indianapolis.
RB Seth McGowan
After one season at Kentucky, Seth McGowan is betting on himself by entering the 2026 NFL Draft. The troubled star did not rack up big numbers in college and could have stayed for another year, but at 24, his NFL window is already closing.
McGowan's numbers do not reflect his true potential, which makes the NFL Combine of the utmost importance for a prospect of his caliber. McGowan has the size and athleticism to potentially become an impact player at the next level that will keep scouts' eyes on him in Indianapolis.
But without top-notch speed or strength that pops off the paper, McGowan might find it difficult to impress at the combine. While solid across the board, McGowan is not elite in any particular area, which could bury him amongst the crowd.
With scouts already wary of McGowan's age and checkered past, he needs a big week at the combine to even remain on NFL Draft boards. Teams will simply overlook him if he gives them the opportunity.
WR Denzel Boston
With 1,715 receiving yards in his final two seasons at Washington, Denzel Boston has quietly become one of the premier receiver prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft. Combine measurements will be a big indicator for Boston, whose length and high-point skills are the foundation of his draft value.
While Boston's measurements look good, he could underwhelm in the physical tests. He is not the fastest receiver — projected to run a sluggish 4.5-second 40-yard dash — and his slim frame will not hold up in any strength-based exams. Boston is also not known for his change of direction and is mediocre at best with the ball in his hands.
Teams love Boston's hands, which made as well be made of glue, but the rest of his physical profile is disappointing. He is a solid, albeit inconsistent, athlete who could either impress or severely disappoint at the NFL Combine. A bad performance could push him down to the early to mid-Day Three range.
TE Justin Joly
The 2026 NFL Draft tight end class is extremely top-heavy, allowing players like NC State's Justin Joly to place anywhere from the third to the sixth round of early mock drafts. Joly has elite hands for a tight end that are held back by subpar speed and athleticism, which will hurt him at the combine.
Joly should participate in every drill, even those in which he does not perform well. He needs to do everything he can to showcase any improved agility and burst he has gained over the last few months. Without it, teams will view him as a sure-handed tight end who cannot get open in space.
The strength drills will also be important for Joly, who needs to demonstrate his potential as a run-blocker. Slower tight ends have no choice but to become high-level blockers if they want to succeed in the NFL.
OG Emmanuel Pregnon
The 2026 NFL Draft class is great for teams in need of offensive tackle help, but not so much for guard and center. Oregon's Emmanuel Pregnon is one of the few premier interior offensive line prospects and is expected to hear his name called early in the second round.
Pregnon is arguably the most well-rounded guard of the class. He already has NFL-ready size with above-average strength to handle opposing interior defenders.
Where Pregnon struggles is with his footwork, which can be flat-footed and choppy at times. It is difficult to beat Pregnon straight away, but the Denver native becomes a liability whenever he faces a quicker defender who can get outside of his shoulders.
The film already exposes some holes in Pregnon's game, but scouts will become even more concerned with them if he posts a dud at the combine. The lateral quickness drills will be key for Pregnon to prove his footwork can improve in the right setting.
Pregnon is currently a second-round prospect, but a good NFL Combine week can turn him into a first-rounder. Conversely, a bad one could push him into the third round.
