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We're just two days away from Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. More bets will be made before (and after) kickoff, but millions and millions of dollars have already been waged on the spread, on the money-line, and on various props. Just like they were in the divisional and championship rounds, the Eagles are underdogs against New England, this time by 4.5 points.
For years and years, betting favorites dominated the big game. While they didn't always cover, they hardly ever lost the game itself. It wasn't uncommon to see double-digit spreads as the NFC dominated the AFC to the tune of 13 straight Super Bowl victories from 1985 to 1997. Even the 19-point favorite San Francisco 49ers covered against the San Diego Chargers in 1994.
The streak was broken by John Elway and the Denver Broncos, who knocked off Brett Favre's 11-point favorite Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. For the next three years, underdogs sputtered once again, but since 2002, it's been a much different story.
That February, the Patriots were 14-point dogs against the high-powered St. Louis Rams. Long before Bill Belichick and Tom Brady cemented their legacy as perhaps the greatest coach and quarterback and NFL history, they shocked the world by beating the Greatest Show on Turf in New Orleans
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Looking back, that was a turning point for the Super Bowl, at least in the gambling world. Including that game, the favorite has only covered in five of the last 16 Super Bowls. The change in fortune for underdogs is even more drastic when you look at the games with spreads of 4.5 points or more.
The #Patriots are 4.5-point favorites. The last five teams favored in the #SuperBowl by 4.5+ have failed to cover, and four of the five lost straight-up pic.twitter.com/EjCLBhHAM6
— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) February 2, 2018
As the chart shows, 4.5+ favorites have failed to cover five straight times and in eight of the last nine contests, dating back to that Patriots upset of the Rams. Of those last five, the only big favorite to even win the title is the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl LIII, and they needed a last-second TD to do so.
Will the past impact what happens in Minneapolis on Sunday? Of course not. The coaches and players from both sides could care less, let alone be impacted by this. But, it does tell us that the recent trend is not only for underdogs to cover, but to ultimately win the Lombardi Trophy. Take that as you will, Eagles fans.
