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The San Francisco 49ers are heading into one of their most pivotal offseasons in recent memory. Following a disappointing 2024 campaign that failed to meet expectations, the front office faces mounting pressure to make difficult financial and roster decisions. With the team aiming to bounce back from a frustrating season, significant changes are inevitable. The 49ers must navigate a tricky salary cap situation. This is especially true with several star players carrying hefty contracts. Among those who could unexpectedly find himself on the chopping block is Deebo Samuel.
A 2024 Season to Forget
The 49ers entered the 2024 season with championship aspirations. However, their campaign unraveled into one of the most disappointing years in recent franchise history. Rather than competing for a Super Bowl, San Francisco stumbled to a 6-11 record. As such, they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Injuries played a major role in their struggles, as did inconsistent quarterback play and a defense that regressed from its once-dominant form. The NFC West remained fiercely competitive, and the 49ers repeatedly found themselves on the losing end of close games. By season’s end, the team was left searching for answers. With a bloated salary cap, tough decisions now loom as they attempt to regroup for 2025.
A Franchise at a Crossroads
This offseason, the 49ers are expected to make bold moves on both sides of the ball in pursuit of returning to Super Bowl contention. Armed with 11 draft picks and the recent return of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator, San Francisco is poised to retool its roster aggressively. With the NFC West more wide open than ever, the franchise has little room for complacency. Given the relatively weak draft class at positions of need, the front office may see this as a final opportunity to construct a contract extension for Brock Purdy. The 49ers have a history of making big moves to sustain competitiveness, and this offseason could be no different—with a few shocking departures potentially on the horizon.
Here we'll try to identify the San Francisco 49ers player who could be the team's surprise roster cut in the 2025 NFL offseason.
A Noticeable Decline
Deebo Samuel’s regression in 2024 was one of the more disappointing aspects of the 49ers’ underwhelming season. He was once regarded as one of the league’s most dynamic offensive weapons. Samuel was expected to be a cornerstone of Kyle Shanahan’s attack. However, his production has steadily declined since his career-best 2021 season, in which he racked up 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 total touchdowns. Fast forward to 2024, and he managed just 806 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns. Those were his lowest numbers since an injury-riddled 2020 campaign.
Now, the 49ers find themselves at a critical juncture with Samuel. With Brandon Aiyuk securing a lucrative contract extension last offseason, San Francisco is heavily invested at wide receiver. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy’s looming contract extension is set to put further strain on the team's finances. Given their salary cap constraints, the 49ers may be forced to make a tough decision—one that could involve parting ways with Samuel.
Could Samuel Be a Surprise Roster Cut?
Ideally, the 49ers would trade Samuel rather than release him outright. Trading him would provide the same cap savings. It would also yield draft capital or additional assets in return. However, the challenge lies in finding a trade partner willing to take on his contract. If the market isn’t robust, opposing teams could opt to wait San Francisco out. This would force them into a difficult decision. They would either accept a lower-than-expected return or cut him outright.
If the 49ers were to trade or release Samuel after June 1, they would clear $5.2 million in cap space. That's certainly not a massive figure, but it's still significant given their tight financial situation. In fact, San Francisco has already granted Samuel permission to seek a trade. That's an indication that his time in the Bay Area may be coming to an end. Sure, moving him presents logistical hurdles. That said, there is a clear roster-building argument that he has become an expendable asset.
Samuel is set to count $15.87 million against the cap in 2025, the final year of his contract. Reports indicate that during the team’s exit meetings after the season, he expressed interest in a fresh start elsewhere. The 49ers, in turn, appear willing to explore their options, which could result in his departure before the start of next season.
The Financial Hurdles of a Trade
Moving Samuel comes with notable salary cap implications. If the 49ers trade him before June 1, they would absorb a staggering $31.55 million in dead money. That's a figure that would significantly hamper their ability to improve other areas of the roster. However, if they wait until after June 1, that dead cap charge would shrink to $10.75 million, making a post-June 1 move the more logical option.
Unfortunately, this same flexibility does not exist for trades. This has led to speculation that if the 49ers fail to find a suitable trade partner, an outright release might be their only viable path forward.
It seems the 49ers anticipated this dilemma. Understanding that keeping both Aiyuk and Samuel long-term would be unsustainable, they used a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on wide receiver Ricky Pearsall. Soon after, they finalized Aiyuk’s extension. This subtly signaled that Samuel might no longer be a necessity in the grand scheme of their roster construction.
A Franchise-Altering Decision
Releasing or trading Deebo Samuel would be a drastic and controversial move. However, it could ultimately make sense for the 49ers. His value to the team has diminished with Aiyuk’s emergence as a true No. 1 receiver, Christian McCaffrey’s expanded role, and the team’s pressing need for financial flexibility.
After a frustrating 2024 season, it’s clear that the 49ers must rework their roster to remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender. With tough cap decisions ahead, parting ways with Samuel—whether through a trade or an outright release—might be the best course of action, even if it stings in the short term.
If the 49ers do move on from Samuel, it would mark the end of an era for one of the most electrifying players in franchise history. However, in the business-driven world of the NFL, tough decisions are often necessary to sustain long-term success. And for San Francisco, the time to make those decisions is fast approaching.
