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Are the Seattle Seahawks… fool's gold?
Crazy? Maybe so, but think about it: after running out to an early lead in the NFC West, the team has dropped to 3-2 after welcoming a very good Detroit Lions team and a not-so-good New York Giants team to town. Their first three wins are against teams with a combined 6-9 record, and Mike Macdonald's defense went from allowing just 14.3 points per game from Week 1-3 to 35.5 over the past two seasons, which would rank dead last in the NFL if it was over the full season.
What's the deal? Have teams already figured out the Seahawks' defense? Or maybe it's the injuries that have piled up on the defensive line, even if their sack total has only dipped from 3.6 in Weeks 1-3 to 3.0 in Weeks 4-5?
Whatever the reason, the Seahawks are dangerously close to losing their division lead entirely, as in Week 6, they are set to face off against the San Francisco 49ers in a pivotal showdown that could either give them some pivotal cushion or even things up at the top of the rankings, losing the tie-breaker in the process. Is this the week where Macdonald proves his defense is still one of the top schemes in the NFL? Or will they further get exposed by one of the NFL's premier offenses, even if they, too, have some issues to figure out? If the Seahawks lean into what they do well, who knows? Maybe they will surprise some people around the NFL.
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1. Geno Smith surpasses 300 passing yards, again
In Week 5, Geno Smith had a down game by his standards.
Now granted, Smith still balled out to a pretty impressive degree in Week 5, connecting on 28 of his 40 passing attempts for 284 yards and a touchdown. But when you consider the pride of West Virginia surpassed 300 yards in two of the previous three games and nearly hit the 400 mark in Week 4, it was a down effort by his standards.
Fortunately, Smith is facing off against a defense that has given up 250-plus passing yards in three of the last four games and currently has eight defensive players on the injury report, plus four more defenders on IR.
With Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, and Ji'Ayir Brown all questionable, Smith has a chance to throw the ball early and often against new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen's scheme, with DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba potentially facing off against a cornerbacks room potentially without their top player. Factor in the 49ers' inherent issues with slowing down the pass through the first five games of the season, allowing 985 yards and seven touchdowns, and what are you left with? It's a chance for Smith to put up another 300-yard game and keep Ryan Grubb's offense rolling as it continues to dominate through the air.
While Macdonald may get all of the credit – or blame – for the Seahawks' season regardless of how it shakes out, it's hard to name a coach other than Grubb as the true Emerald City MVP of 2024.
2. Geno Smith doesn't lead the Seahawks in rushing
In the month of September, the Seahawks' rushing offense was mid.
In one game, they looked good, like against the Broncos or the Lions, and in the next? In the next, they would struggle, picking up a paltry 46 yards on the ground against the New England Patriots despite the game going into overtime.
And then, in Week 5, the floor seemingly fell out from under them.
Suddenly, the Seahawks' running backs combined for just seven rushing attempts for 30 total yards, and none other than Smith led the team in rushing yards at 72 on four carries with a long of 32. Why didn't the Seahawks run the ball more? Well, part of it was because they needed to throw the ball early and often to stay on-pace with the Giants, but for all of Grubb's positives, his unwavering commitment to the run game simply is not one of them.
Fortunately, in Week 6, the Seahawks are facing off against a 49ers defense that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL at 554 through five weeks, with four touchdowns and 4.7 yards-per-rush allowed for good measure. If there were ever a game to really lean into Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet on the ground, this would be the one, especially considering the duo have shined when afforded a chance to go to work.
On his 37 rushing attempts this season, Walker III has looked really good for the ‘Hawks, picking up a career-high 5.5 yards per attempt on the way to 202 rushing yards and four touchdowns over only three games. While Charbonnet hasn't been nearly as effective overall, averaging just 3.8 years per rush, he did turn in a fantastic effort in Week 3, running the ball 18 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins as the team's top rusher.
If the Seahawks commit to something like 30 rushing attempts against the 49ers in Week 6 – zero of which should go to Smith – in addition to the 39.8, call it 40, passing attempts Smith is averaging on the season and maybe, just maybe, Seattle will finally turn in a balanced offensive attack on the year and secure the W when it matters.
3. The Seahawks squeak out a win in Week 6
So, if Smith goes for over 300 yards as a passer, doesn't lead his team in rushing, but is supported with a strong ground game against a 49ers defense that will, at best, be banged up and, at worse, seriously injured, the Seahawks should leave Week 6 with a win, right?
On paper, this game should be close, but there's reason to believe the Seahawks could secure the W if they put it all together. Why? Because Macdonald has probably had this game circled on his schedule for weeks as a huge statement showdown on Thursday Night Football; if Grubb can double-down on what's working on offense, supplement it with more rushing attempts, and give his QB what he needs to succeed, the final score could ultimately side in Seattle's favor.
