It’s not like the Washington Commanders don’t know, but Zach Ertz still hit them with a warning. And a big problem is Terry McLaurin won't play this week. It’s a tough sell for victory, but here is the biggest matchup the Commanders must exploit to upset the Seahawks in their Week 9 prime-time clash.
The struggling Commanders (3-5) have lost three games in a row. Before handing the Bears a late win, the Commanders got dusted by the Cowboys like a stray tumbleweed. Then the Chiefs blew them off the Midwest map in front of a national audience.
So, things don’t look good as they take on the Seahawks, who have one of the NFC’s best records at 5-2.
Commanders must find success on the ground
The NFL statistics will tell you the Commanders have one of the best rushing offenses in the league. They are averaging 137.8, which ranks in a tie for third place.
However, the Commanders have begun a soft fade in that area. They hit for 220, 201, 147, and 163 in four of the first five weeks. But they had 124 against the Bears, 136 versus the Cowboys, and 60 against the Chiefs.
How does this reflect in terms of wins and losses? They are 3-0 when they rush for 147 yards or more. They are 0-5 when they rush for 136 or less. Pretty simple, huh?
That’s why the matchup against the Seahawks screams for them to run the football. But can they do it?
Well … the Seahawks are the NFL’s best at stopping the run. Oh. That’s a problem. The Seahawks have allowed only 75.7 yards per game.
But … here’s the catch. The Seahawks have played the 49ers, Steelers, Saints, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Texans. Let’s look at how those teams run the football.
The 49ers rank No. 30. Meanwhile, the Steelers (No. 24), Saints (No. 28), Cardinals (No. 19), Buccaneers (No. 26), Jaguars (No. 14), and Texans (No. 16) do not exactly make up a powerhouse row of ground attacks. So perhaps there’s some hope.
Commanders can't rely on receivers
Dan Quinn’s Commanders won’t be able to move the football through the air consistently. The lack of talent at the receiver position has become dreadfully obvious this season.
McLaurin has been out of the lineup in recent weeks, and didn’t set the world on fire when he was in there. Deebo Samuel has been decent at times, but he’s not a No. 1 receiver anymore. Plus, he doesn’t seem to have that quick burst that made his days special with the 49ers.
As for the rest of the guys the Commanders trot onto the field, they can’t catch the football. Maybe Daniels throws the ball too hard. Who knows? But drops can change the outcome of games.
Zach Ertz ranks No. 5 in the NFL with five drops. Samuel is tied for No. 15 with three drops. Those are guys Daniels should be able to count on. But they aren’t delivering with their hands.
So even if Daniels makes it to the field, here is what he will have at his receiving disposal: Samuel, Luke McCaffrey, Chris Moore, and Jaylin Lane. He will also have Ertz, John Bates, and Ben Sinnott at the tight end position. Perhaps wide receiver Robbie Chosen will also be running routes.
That’s a mess of yuck. So that’s why the Commanders must run the football.
But what Commanders player gets it done?
The leading rusher is Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He’s a seventh-round pick that the Commanders seemed to fawn over early in the season. He had one big game.
Since that contest against the Chargers, where he had 150 total yards of offense, Croskey-Merritt had 68, 32, and 25 total yards. And he had only nine touches against the Chiefs.
Which is it, Coach Quinn? Is Croskey-Merritt a guy you need to get the ball in his hands, or is he an average rookie? Against the Chiefs, Jeremy McNichols had seven touches. So does that mean McNichols is equal to Coskey-Merritt’s value?
Quite simply, the Commanders don’t have a good plan on the ground. They rely too much on quarterback runs. That’s fine with Mariota in the game. But Daniels’ slight frame won’t hold up to him getting almost nine rushes per game.
Daniels has missed three games and part of another. That has killed the Commanders’ 2025 season. They have to keep him healthy. There should be zero designed runs by him. He should only run as an open scramble, where he can get out of bounds or slide safely.
Kliff Kingsbury is a good offensive coordinator, but he needs to call plays with the understanding that Daniels can’t be the main weapon on the ground.
Unfortunately, it's probably too late in the season for the Commanders to get things straightened out. They have a couple of likely losses remaining with the Lions at home and the Eagles on the road. Even if they win all of the others, no small feat, they're likely still out of the playoff hunt.
