It is West meets East as Colorado heads north of the border to Toronto in tonight’s match-up. It’s time to continue our NHL odds series with an Avalanche-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.
Colorado comes in off a win over another Canadian team, taking out Montreal by a score of 8-4 in Montreal on Monday. The Avalanche are winners of nine of their last 14 games and currently sit one point ahead of Winnipeg for the third seed in the Central Division. Toronto finds themselves firmly in a battle for the two and three see out of the Atlantic division, two points ahead of Tampa Bay while 15 points ahead of four-seeded Florida, but 17 points behind the one-seeded Boston. They will fight for home ice in the first round, most likely against the Lightning. Toronto comes in off a 4-3 loss against the Sabres, as they let Alex Tuch score two in the third period for the comeback. The Maple Leafs have won six of their last 10 games, and look to get back to their winning ways in their third straight game at home.
Here are the Avalanche-Maple Leafs NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Avalanche-Maple Leafs Odds
Colorado Avalanche: +1.5 (-200)
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 6.5 (-110)
Under: 6.5 (-110)
How To Watch Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs
TV: TNT/Sportnet Canada
Stream: NHLPP
Time: 7:00 ET/ 4:00 PT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Avalanche Could Cover The Spread
Nathan MacKinnon is getting hot! He has points in 14 of his past 15 games, including a goal in 13 of them, and one goal in each of his last 5. He has scored 16 goals in the 17 games since the All-Star break, leading Colorado to a 10-4-3 record in that time span. MacKinnon is not the only player heating up, as Mikko Rantanen has points in 10 of his past 12 games as well. Rantanen is currently tied for fourth in the NHL with 43 goals on the season.
Colorado sits 15th in the NHL at 3.23 goals per game, but that is up to 3.71 since the break, and removing the two poor outings right after the break places them at 4.13 goals per game in their past 15 outings. The offense that ranked third in the NHL last year, on their way to a Stanley Cup win is starting to come back into form.
One of the areas that helped the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup was ranking fourth in the Western Conference in goals against average for the goaltender, and sitting 10th overall. This year, even with the loss of Darcy Kuemper, Colorado sits 10th again in goals against average. Alexandar Georgiev has stepped in nicely to fill the goaltending void, with a 2.65 GAA and four shutouts on the year, which is tied for third in the NHL.
On the special teams front, Colorado sits sixth in Power Play conversion percentage, but this may not help much here, since Toronto is one of the least penalized teams in the NHL. Their penalty kill is a middle-of-the-pack unit, and facing the number two power-play team means that they will need to stay out of the box in this one.
Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread
Toronto comes in off a major disappointment, giving up a third-period lead against Buffalo. The scoring that has been a major part of their team all year long as gone inconsistent. They rank 7th in the NHL is goals per game, and do have a recent outing of seven goals in a game, but also stretch of scoring under four goals in four of five games. While inconsistent, they have still averaged out in their goal output recently, averaging 3.4 goals per game in their last ten. This game may just come down to which offense shows up. Is it the one that put up seven against Edmonton, or the one that managed only one goal against Vancouver?
On the individual front, Toronto has five guys currently with 20 or more goals on the season, led by William Nylander who is 13th in the NHL with 35 goals. Right behind him is Auston Matthews who has scored a goal in each of his last three, but only has six tallies since the all-star break. John Tavares is also a 30-goal scorer, and is tied for 25th in the NHL in goals this season. With three guys who rank in the top 25 in the NHL is goals scored, there is more than enough offensive firepower to win any game.
Matt Murray is expected to get the start tonight in goal, but that is not yet confirmed. He is 27th in the NHL in goals-against average and tied for 30th in save percentage. His recent outings have not been wonderful. He has given up four goals in each of his last three outings, losing twice in that time span. Samsonov has been slightly better for Toronto, ranking 10th in the NHL in save percentage, and ninth in goals against average. His last two outings have also been rough though, giving up eight goals in the past two games. If goaltending can be solid, and Toronto can get a few power play opportunities for their second-ranked power play unit, they can win this game.
Final Avalanche-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick
If Murray is the starter tonight, that should give concern against this offense of Colorado that is starting to move in the right direction. Power Play opportunities also may be a key in this game, as both units are great on the Power Play. Overall, Colorado is starting to round into form and will go to Toronto, coming out with a win tonight.
Final Avalanche-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-200)
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