The NIT Quarterfinals continue Wednesday night in Nashville as the UAB Blazers are hosted by the Vanderbilt Commodores. It is time to continue our NIT odds series with a UAB-Vanderbilt prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Vanderbilt was 11-7 in the SEC this season, and come into this game after defeating Yale and then Michigan on the way to this quarterfinals matchup. It took a game-winning layup with ten seconds left on the clock for Vanderbilt to knock off Michigan and now they face the four-seeded UAB Blazers. UAB took out Southern Miss and then Morehead State, who upset Clemson in the first round. Both of their games were won by a comfortable margin and they travel to Nashville for the right to go to the semi-finals in New Orleans.
Here are the UAB-Vanderbilt NIT odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NIT Odds: UAB-Vanderbilt Odds
UAB: +1.5 (-122)
Vanderbilt: -1.5 (+100)
Over: 153.5 (-110)
Under: 153.5 (-110)
How To Watch UAB vs. Vanderbilt
TV: ESPN 2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why UAB Could Cover The Spread
UAB finished third in C-USA in three-point shooting this season at 35.84%. That mark was good for 84th in the nation. That mark helped lead them to the 42nd adjusted efficiency offense according to KenPom this year. UAB is led on the offensive end by Senior guard Jordan Walker. Walker finished the year fourth in the nation in points per game this year with 22.6 points per outing. Three-point shooting was a major part of his game on the year, with a high volume of three-point shots. His scoring is a major part of this offense but does not necessarily dictate if UAB wins the game. Against Morehead State, Jordan was 2-12 for five points, and two of his lowest outputs of the season with eight and 12 points, also resulted in UAB wins. At the same time, the 28 and 21-point outputs by Jordan resulted in losses for UAB.
Rebounding may be the deciding factor in this game. On the season, UAB was plus 6.1 rebounds per game, but in their losses, they had a combined negative rebound differential, with six games losing the rebounding battle and the other three losses below their season average on the differential. Trey Jemison leads UAB in that regard. His 8.4 rebounds per game were 67th in the nation but led Conference USA. UAB was 14th in the nation in rebound differential while Vanderbilt was 235th. If they can dominate the boards, they will cover and win this game.
Why Vanderbilt Could Cover The Spread
Vanderbilt nearly saw their season come to an end against Michigan. Down by eight with under two minutes left in the game, the Commodores scored nine points in the last 1:45 of the game to come back and shock Michigan. Just like UAB, Vanderbilt is an offense-first team. They finished with an adjusted offensive rating of 24th according to KenPom, which was fourth in the SEC this season. They finished 7th in the SEC in points per game with 72.3 per outing against some of the top defenses in the nation.
On offense Vanderbilt is led by Liam Robbins and Tyrin Lawrence. Robbins is the team leader in points per game, with 15 points per game, but he has not played since March 1st. Lawrence has had to step up in his absence. He has 13.2 points per game on the season and has been much higher since March 1st. Since the March 1st game at Kentucky, Lawrence is averaging 20.5 points per game.
Robbins not being in the lineup may be a bigger loss on the glass. Robbins had 6.8 rebounds per game. Vanderbilt gives us 11.6 offensive rebounds per game, which is 335th in the nation. That is only getting worse without Robbins in the line-up, and they have given up 23 offensive rebounds in their two NIT games thus far. Beyond issues on the boards, Vanderbilt turns over the ball more than they force them. Their -.5 turnover margin was 226th in the nation this season. If they cannot control the turnover game and find rebounds, they may not have enough firepower to outscore UAB.
Final UAB-Vanderbilt Prediction & Pick
UAB is a much better team on the boards and in a game that will be decided by offense, the second-chance points will be huge. If Vanderbilt cannot limit the offensive rebounds of UAB while slowing down Jordan Walker, they could be in for a long night. UAB has not lost the turnover battle in their last five games, and when they hit their season average in rebound differential, they normally come out with the win. UAB will force turnovers and win the rebound battle, which will give them victory.
Final UAB-Vanderbilt Prediction & Pick: UAB +1.5 (-122)
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