The ACC regular season title is on the line as North Carolina and Duke face off. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a North Carolina-Duke prediction, pick, and how to watch.
North Carolina comes into the game at 24-6 on the year while sitting 16-3 in conference play. They have won five straight games overall, and since beating Duke, they have won six of their last eight games. They would lose the first game after beating Duke, Falling to Clemson by four. After beating Miami, they would then fall to Syracuse by seven. Since then, they have been solid, including a second win over Miami and a win on the road at Virginia.
Meanwhile, Duke is 9-1 since their loss to North Carolina. They also beat Virginia, but they were at home. They have also not faced a ranked them since the loss to North Carolina. The one loss in their was on the road, as they fell by four points to Wake Forest.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina-Duke Odds
North Carolina: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +160
Duke: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -194
Over: 149.5 (-115)
Under: 149.5 (-105)
How to Watch North Carolina vs. Duke
Time: 6:30 PM ET/ 3:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina is eighth according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are sitting 26th on the offensive side of things while sitting sixth on the defensive side of things. They have done all of this while facing the 21st hardest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. North Carolina is 20th in the nation in points per game. They are led by RJ Davis. While Davis shoots just 43.4 percent from the field, he is a solid three-point shooter, hitting 41.7 percent of his threes. That has led to him scoring 21.5 points per game this year to lead the team. He also helps the offense with his 3.5 assists this year.
Armando Bacot is also scoring well. He comes into the game with 14.0 points per game, and he is shooting 54.7 percent from the field this year. Joining him in scoring well is Harrison Ingram. He comes in with 12.5 points per game this year. Further, North Carolina has Cormax Ryan who comes in with 10.8 points per game.
The rebounding game is great for North Carolina. They are fifth in the nation in rebounds per game this year, while sitting 67th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, and fourth in defensive rebounding rate. Bacot and Ingram lead the way here too. Bacot comes in with 10.2 rebounds per game this year, while Ingram comes in with 9.2 rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, both of them have over two offensive rebounds per game this year.
On defense, North Carolina ranks 99th in the nation in points against this year but sits 12th in opponent effective field goal percentage this year. Bacot is a disruptive force here too, coming in with 1.6 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, both Ingram and Davis have 1.3 or more steals per game.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duke sits seventh in KenPoms adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Duke is 34th in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 19th in effective field goal percentage. Kyle Filipowski comes in with 16.5 points per game this year, while he is shooting 50.7 percent from the field. Meanwhile, Jeremy Roach comes in with 14.3 points per game this year while also shooting 49.3 percent this year. Finally, Jared McCain comes in with 13.4 points per game this year. Meanwhile, Tyrese Proctor leads the team in assists this year. He has 3.8 per game on the season while adding 10.4 points of his own.
Duke ranks 90th in rebounds per game this year, still, they are 44th in the nation in defensive rebounding rate. Filipowski leads here as well, coming in with 8.1 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Mark Mitchell also adds 6.2 rebounds per game this year. He is averaging almost two offensive rebounds per game, which is helping his 12.4 points per game and 54.7 percent shooting percentage.
Duke is 34th in the nation in opponent points per game this year. Roach and Filipowski play a major role here as well. Roach comes in with 1.2 steals per game, while Filipowski has 1.0 steals per game, but also has 1.6 blocks per game this year. Duke has just 6.5 steals per game, but with just 9.8 total turnovers per game, they end with a solid turnover margin.
Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick
This is always a great game when these two get together. North Carolina got the win last time against Duke, but since then, they have covered just four of nine games. Duke has truly been great since then. They have covered eight of nine and in each win. The only miss was the loss to Wake Forest, in which they were a three-point underdog and lost by four. Duke has been the better team as of late and is at home. Take them in this one.
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Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -4.5 (-110)
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