No. 12 Oklahoma football takes on No. 3 Texas on Saturday in the 119th edition of the Red River Rivalry, hosted at the original Cotton Bowl in Dallas. These are the only two ranked teams in the Big 12, and both are undefeated. This is a revenge game for Brent Venables and the Sooners after last year's lopsided 49-0 loss. Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns look to win it back-to-back years for the first time since 2008-09. However, this may also be a preview for the Big 12 Championship Game in December.

Sarkisian's first Red River Rivalry was a heartbreaking classic. Texas held a 28-7 lead before Caleb Williams entered the game, and the Sooners stormed back to win 55-48. The field at the Cotton Bowl became a sea of crimson as Oklahoma football fans flooded the field.

Last year's game was quite a bit less eventful. So what needs to happen for the Sooners to recreate a scene like that of 2021? Four Red River Rivalry predictions:

 

1.  Dillon Gabriel throws 45+ passes

Dillon Gabriel is a baller, and he has to be extremely special on Saturday for the Sooners to win this game. Through five games, Gabriel has thrown for 1,593 yards and 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He has four more scores on the ground as well. The only concern is Oklahoma hasn't played any real competition yet.

That changes Saturday. This Texas team is extremely talented and proved it by beating Alabama on the road. The Longhorns are great at virtually all levels, but what separates them is their strength at the line of scrimmage. The Sooners are probably going to struggle to run the ball against Texas' physical front seven. Because of that, Oklahoma needs Dillon Gabriel to put this game on his back (or rather his arm).

With an elite receiving trio of Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony and Jalil Farooq, the Sooners are going to try to sling it all over the yard. That's the path they have to take to beat Texas. Whether or not they can do that successfully against competition like Texas and a pass rush that gave Alabama 60 minutes of fits, is yet to be seen.

 

2. Brent Venables' defense bends, but doesn't break

This Sooners defense, spearheaded by linebacker Danny Stutsman, has looked a lot better than it did a year ago. Oklahoma couldn't stop a parked car in 2022, but this side of the ball has really improved, particularly in terms of tackling.

PFF has given Oklahoma's defense a 92.1 overall grade, with a 91.1 run defense grade. Those are great evaluations, up from an overall grade of 75.2 a year ago.

In this game, Oklahoma has to do a good job of limiting mistakes. That means not missing tackles on the outside to give up big plays, and getting stops on 3rd-&-long to get off the field. Limiting the number of unforced penalties is another key. If the Sooners do the little things right, they have a good chance of making this a competitive contest and giving themselves a shot to win it late.

 

3. Oklahoma covers 6.5 point spread

Vegas favors Texas by 6.5 in this game. The Longhorns have earned that respect; their win over Alabama is still probably the best win in college football this year. But it also says a lot about Oklahoma's improvement that oddsmakers think this will be a one-score game.

Texas won this game 49-0 last year and then got better. The Longhorns look like a much more complete team than they have in nearly 15 years. And they're only getting 6.5 points here?

This year's Red River Rivalry shapes up to be a physical, gritty game. Texas is going to try and grind the Sooners down with the run game and open it up over the top only when Oklahoma is on its heels. Oklahoma might not be able to run the ball well on Saturday, but they still need to eat up the clock with long drives. Continue to move the chains with short and intermediate passes, and keep the Texas offense off the field. That's the key. Oklahoma has a shot to win this game outright, but expect the Sooners to at least cover the spread.

 

4. Sooners pull off the upset

There's more parity in college football right now than there has been in a long, long time. Which teams are actually elite? Are any? Texas' win over Alabama looked massive because, well, it's Alabama. But is this year's Alabama team up to the standard set by Nick Saban? Maybe not.

The point is the gap between the “great” teams and the “very good” teams is a lot smaller than it used to be. It feels like any of the top 12 to 15 teams can beat any of the others.

So, let's take the upset in this one. Dillon Gabriel needs to have a monster game, and I project he will. The Oklahoma receivers will be the difference makers, while the much-improved defense makes things difficult for Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian on the other end.

Prediction: Sooners 28, Longhorns 24