When Lincoln Riley up and left the Oklahoma Sooners' football program at the end of the 2021 season, it came as a complete shock to those in Norman. After all, Oklahoma is part of the elite in all of college football, right? Who would dare leave such a prominent program that was already established enough to win in their then-current state to go to a program that had more or less seen better days over the last decade or more? Well, Riley did just that, and now we have Brent Venables entering his second year as the program's head coach. Venables' first year with the Sooners is not one that will be remembered kindly, though. So, that leaves the question of whether Venables and the Sooners can have a massive rebound of a year in 2023? Let's get to some bold predictions for the Sooners.

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4. Oklahoma's defense will be better

What Venables did during his time at Clemson as the defensive coordinator will likely not be forgotten, as it helped the Tigers win two National Championships in three years' time, along with several playoff appearances. Having former ties to Oklahoma, it was a natural fit for Venables to make his return to Norman, especially in the wake of the abrupt departure of Riley. While Riley was known for his high-powered offense at Oklahoma, where he faltered was on defense. Whether you blame that on the Air-Raid offense, lack of development, or recruiting, it falls on Riley. In his five seasons as head coach at Oklahoma, his defenses ranked as follows: 68th, 101st, 64th, 28th, and 60th.

Last year's Oklahoma defense looked a little like this: 106th in rush defense, 119th in pass defense, and 122nd in total defense among the 131 FBS teams. From 2016-2019, Venables Tigers defenses couldn't have been more the opposite, having four top 10 scoring defenses in that time. So it is no wonder why Sooners' fans were left a little perplexed by the end of last season.

Venables made some much-needed moves in the portal to hopefully improve his defense this season. He brought in defensive lineman Rondell Bothroyd from Wake Forest, linebacker Dasan McCullough from Indiana, and safety Reggie Pearson from Texas Tech. These additions are expected to upgrade a unit that allowed more first downs than any team in the country last year, per The Athletic. This unit will still be a work in progress, though, as Venables figures out just exactly what he has before he has enough classes and transfers to fix it completely.

3. Oklahoma football will lose to two Big 12 newcomers

The Big 12 will welcome four new teams this year: BYU, UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati. The Sooners will face three of them in their departing year from the conference. They'll travel to Cincinnati and BYU, while hosting UCF at home.

These could all be intriguing matchups for the Sooners as they say goodbye to the Big 12. So much so that I believe they will lose two out of three of these games. The biggest challenge will be when Gus Malzahn and the Golden Knights come to Norman.

UCF will have John Rhys Plumlee, who had nearly 900 rushing yards last season and could be one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the conference. And with him will be running back RJ Harvey, who rushed for 796 yards at 6.7 yards per carry, and wide receivers Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson, who combined for over 1,400 yards and 95 catches last season. These players and others could pose problems for an unsure Sooners' defense.

After that, it'll be interesting to see what this year's Sooners team looks like by the time they have to travel to Provo to play BYU in late November. They'll have journeyman Kedon Slovis to deal with, who is playing for his third team now. Needless to say, I believe the new neighbors might not be so welcoming to Oklahoma.

2. A Healthy Dillon Gabriel Makes Texas Game Closer

The drubbing that the Texas Longhorns put on the Sooners last season in the Red River Rivalry game was pitiful to watch. You almost felt sorry for the Sooners as the Longhorns just kept running up the score, which was 49-0, by the way. Some forget that Gabriel didn't play in that game due to a concussion. Though it's unlikely the result would have been that much different, his presence may have at least kept the Sooners from being shut out. Among active quarterbacks, Gabriel is third nationally in terms of passing yards per game (294.9) and secures the second spot for total offense per game (312.9). Impressively, he ranks fourth in the nation with a total of 11,205 passing yards and claims the fourth spot with 95 touchdown passes.

Gabriel, in his fifth year, along with some offensive improvements via the transfer portal and recruiting, will keep the game at the Cotton Bowl a little closer this year. However, the Sooners are still losing this game, maybe by two touchdowns.

1. Oklahoma football will be under the projected win total

It's really not fair to judge a coach based on their first season. Venables has a full workload on his hands that started from the moment he arrived in Norman. He's trying to do much more than just clean up a defense that struggled well before he got there and put his fingerprints on it. I often don't think anyone understands how significant the departures of Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams were, though.

When Riley and Williams up and left Oklahoma, they sort of tarnished the brand of Oklahoma football. Oklahoma has been a long-standing, national brand in college football for a long time now. They have 14 Big 12 titles and seven national titles to prove it. Who wouldn't want to be the head coach at Oklahoma? Riley proved he didn't, and went beyond the greener pastures of Norman, OK, to the Hollywood Hills of California. Riley left Oklahoma looking like a less desirable brand than it had been. And now Venables is left to prove that it's still very much desirable and that Oklahoma football is still at the top of the class in college football.

We saw remnants of this last season; we saw what Oklahoma football looked like without Riley and Williams. We saw an 11-2 team go to 6-7 in one season. While I do believe that the Sooners will be somewhat improved, I haven't invested in Venables yet. This will be a much bigger project than I think some believe, and with the move to the SEC next year, the job gets even more difficult. The coaches' poll and AP poll have the Sooners ranked at 19 and 20, respectively; that's with a projected win total of 9.5, according to FanDuel. I think, at best, the Sooners will finish the season with eight wins, and that may be pushing it.