Ranked 5th overall in the nation, Rick Barnes’ Tennessee Volunteers will take on Chris Beard’s 22nd-ranked Ole Miss Rebels. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Ole Miss-Tennessee prediction and pick.

There has been some pushback around Tennessee being ranked top five in the nation but you will not find any of that with me. It seems as if people watched that three-game losing streak to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina in late November and wrote the Volunteers off. You must remember this team handled Wisconsin at the Kohl Center and an Illinois team when they were still at full strength.

To open the season you had star guards Zakai Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi battling through tough fall semesters. Zeigler, who is very much back now, has been fighting back from a nasty ACL injury that hindered him to start the year. Vescovi had a tough summer with the passing of his Grandmother. 

Attempting to take down Rick Barnes in Knoxville will be first year coach, Chris Beard. You may recognize Beard from his Little Rock days, or maybe when he took Texas Tech to the title. After a short stint at Texas, Beard immediately has Ole Miss nationally relevant. Beard was able to maintain a solid core of Matthew Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield while bringing in loads of talent. 

Longtime Auburn starter Allen Flanigan, former LSU standout Brandon Murray, and Saint Peter’s star Juju Murray have been massive for the Rebels. Speaking of massive, Beard also brought in a pair of the best shot blockers in the country. Western Kentucky’s 7-5 Jamarion Sharp and reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year 7-0 Moussa Cisse protect the rim for a full 40 minutes.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Ole Miss-Tennesee Odds

Ole Miss: +11.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +570

Tennessee: -11.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -850

Over: 143.5 (-110)

Under: 143.5 (-110)

How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Tennessee 

Time: 6:00 pm ET/ 3:00 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread

Shockingly, Ole Miss is one of the best shooting teams in the nation, ranking 8th nationally in three-point percentage (40.3%). This might be Chris Beards best shooting team he has ever had. Out of Allen Flanigan, Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray, Jaemyn Brakefield, TJ Caldwell, and Brandon Murray, the worst shooter is Jaemyn Brakefield at 36%. It is important to remember that the Rebels have not faced a three-point defense like Tennessee’s yet this season. 

However, Ole Miss made double digit threes against Memphis who ranks top 100 nationally in three-point percentage defense. Do I think Ole Miss is going to walk into Knoxville and shoot the lights out? Probably not. But when you see that Wofford and George Mason both hit double digit threes in Knoxville, you have to think there is a chance Ole Miss can do it too.  

Say whatever you want about Chris Beard, but one thing you must accept is his ability to formulate game plans. Bryant was in the top ten nationally in block rate going into that game – Ole Miss did not have a single shot blocked. I do not think Tennessee’s block rate defensively (23rd, 14.0%) will play as much of a factor as the numbers suggest.

Unsurprisingly, Tennessee’s weakest area defensively is their foul rate (278th). Thankfully for the Rebels, Allen Flanigan has the teams highest usage rate (28.2%) and ranks 5th in the SEC in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (5.8). This may seem insignificant to some, but when we are dealing with a five possession spread free throws are worth their weight in gold. 

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread

Initially, I was not too nice to Mr. Zeigler during November but make no mistake – Zakai Zeigler is back to playing his best basketball. Out of the past seven games, Zeigler has earned a KenPom offensive rating above 100 six times. He only had one game over 100 during the first six games. Zeigler is now coming off a career high shooting night making 5/10 three-pointers. His emergence back to his usual self is huge for this team. 

Significantly, Ole Miss’s worst category overall is their defensive rebounding rate (291st). Against UCF, Ole Miss allowed 18 offensive rebounds, against Memphis they allowed 16 offensive rebounds, and against NC State they allowed 18. Tennessee has one of the best offensive rebounders in the nation in Tobe Awaka. Awaka has an offensive rebounding rate of 22.4%, which ranks 2nd nationally. In the past four out of the past six games, Awaka has 4 or more offensive rebounds. 

Additionally, Tennessee does a wonderful job at running teams off the three-point line. While Ole Miss shoots a high percentage, they do not attempt many threes. The Rebels rank bottom 100 nationally in three-point attempt rate while the Vols rank bottom 150 in three-point attempt rate allowed. In summary, Ole Miss does not shoot many threes and the Vols are not going to let them – a recipe for success at home. 

I think we are going to get a phenomenal crowd for this one. Ole Miss being ranked creates a buzz around Knoxville that I can feel from my apartment in Atlanta. As Jon Rothstein like to say, there is ‘palpable buzz’ for this SEC matchup. I predict the crowd to play a factor – much more than Ole Miss previous road games at Temple and UCF did.

Final Ole Miss-Tennessee Prediction & Pick

Quite simply, I still do not think the computers have caught up to how good Ole Miss is. KenPom has Ole Miss at 82nd, but when you filter BartTorviks data to only show the games where Ole Miss has had both Moussa Cisse and Brandon Murray, the Rebels rank 32nd. The spread you are seeing is using data from the full season, not just the games where Ole Miss has had their full team. Could Ole Miss go into Thompson Boling Arena and get boat-raced? Sure, you could say that for literally every team in the nation.

I strongly disagree with the full season analytics on Ole Miss and believe Chris Beard is one of the best coaches at creating opponent specific gameplans. Taking nothing away from Tennessee, a double digit spread is disrespectful. 

Final Ole Miss-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss +11.5 (-102)