The Cleveland Guardians host the San Diego Padres for a rare matchup in The Land. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Guardians prediction and pick.
Padres-Guardians Projected Starters
Matt Waldron vs. Tanner Bibee
Matt Waldron (5-8) with a 3.71 ERA in 106.1 innings. He also has 94 K's and a 1.17 WHIP.
Last Start: 7.0 innings, six hits, four earned runs, one walk, and one strikeout in the 6-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves.
2024 Road Splits: (3-3) with a 3.13 ERA in 54.2 innings. He also has 48 K's and has allowed 20 walks in 10 starts.
Tanner Bibee (7-4) with a 3.77 ERA, 123 strikeouts, 1.12 WHIP in 105 innings.
Last Start: 7.0 innings, five hits, four earned runs, three walks, and eight K's in the 5-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers.
2024 Home Splits: (3-2) with a 4.69 ERA, 59 K's, 12 walks in 48 innings. He pitches much better on the road.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Guardians Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: +122
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -144
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Padres vs. Guardians
Time: 7:10 ET/4:10 PT
TV: Apple TV+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres were well represented in Texas for the All-Star Game. Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. did not play but Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, and Robert Suarez all contributed. The Friars are loaded with talent but have had trouble putting it all together in the first half of the season. At 50-49, the Friars are one game out of a Wild Card spot in the NL. They are in a good position to make the postseason but need to get healthy and the offense needs to get hot again. The Padres' offense remains the league's best in terms of hits as they lead the league with 876 (10 more than the Astros).
The rotation has been good for the most part, however, they are holding on for dear life with the injuries to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Waldron, Dylan Cease, and Michael King are holding down the fort until those two return, but the other two starters, Adam Mazur and Randy Vasquez have not been good. The Padres have also lost the last three games that Waldron has started but he also has four quality starts in his last six starts.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
Cleveland ended the first half with the best record in the American League and second-best overall. As a result, they were also well represented in Texas. Emmanuel Clase, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and David Fry all played roles in the AL's win. The Guardians can hit and pitch at an elite level. Kwan leads the league in batting average at .352 while Jose Ramirez is putting up another MVP-caliber season with 23 homeruns and 77 RBIs. Josh Naylor (who was traded to Cleveland from the Padres), is also having a stellar offensive year with 22 homers and 70 RBIs. The Padres right-handed pitchers will have a tough time against those three stars.
Bibee has been the Guardians' top hurler. Ben Lively is a close second but the Guardians win more often than not when Bibee is on the mound. He leads with a 1.2 WAR while being 13th in the league in Ks with 123. His WHIP is top 25 also while having a top 40 ERA. If he is on his game, then the Guardians should cover this spread.
Final Padres-Guardians Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a fun series kicked off by a great pitching matchup for the opener. If Matt Waldron can control his knuckleball, then the Guardians will have a tough time hitting. However, I feel like the Guardians will have a slight edge in this one with Bibee starting anyway. Take the Guardians to win and the over at 7.5.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Padres-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians ML (-144), Over 7.5 (-122)
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