It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Cardinals-Cubs prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Cardinals-Cubs.
The St. Louis Cardinals are not making a move in the National League wild card standings. They are treading water, and given that they are facing the below-.500 Chicago Cubs, that's not a good thing to do. If the Cardinals lost two out of three to the Philadelphia Phillies or Los Angeles Dodgers, that would be one thing. The fact that they lost two of three to the Cubs to start this series is discouraging. When they face better teams, there will be no margin for error. The Cardinals trail by a few games in the battle for a wild card spot, but what's more concerning than the deficit is that the Cardinals will have to climb over several teams, not just the leading teams, to get that spot. There are three wild card berths available, but there are more than three teams ahead of St. Louis in the wild card standings. The Cardinals need to at least get to a point where they are chasing only the three wild card teams — not anyone else — if they want to be in a position to make a push in the middle of September.
The Chicago Cubs have done a good job of playing spoiler for their rivals from Missouri, but not a great job. They let one get away on Saturday with awful defense. A throwing error and an outfield miscommunication on a pop fly led to three cheap runs for the Cardinals which tied the game in the eighth inning. St. Louis then won in the ninth, a perfect encapsulation of a season which has spiraled out of control in Chicago for a roster which needs an offseason overhaul. Manager Craig Counsell was hired for a large amount of money, but he has watched a mediocre set of players drift through an aimless season. The Cubs just don't have a lot of dudes, and they need to freshen up this roster in the winter.
Cardinals-Cubs Projected Starters
Miles Mikolas vs. Justin Steele
Miles Mikolas (8-8) has a 4.99 ERA. The ERA is bad, but Mikolas — who was awful early in the season — has pitched better in recent weeks and has shown that when he's good, he's hard to deal with for opposing hitters. Mikolas' season is instructive in that it reminds us that April and May results count just as much as June and July results. Mikolas struggling as often as he did early in the season is responsible for the Cardinals being two or three games lower in the standings, a differential which is hurting the Cardinals right now. St. Louis can't afford for Mikolas to regress over the next two months. It's non-negotiable.
Last Start: Sunday, July 28 vs the Washington Nationals: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
2024 Road Splits: 12 starts, 69 1/3 IP, 69 H, 30 R, 8 HR, 10 BB, 47 K
Justin Steele (2-5) has a 3.38 ERA. The numbers say it all. Justin Steele has pitched like an ace for the Cubs this year, and yet he is 2-5 in seven decisions with a number of no-decisions in games when he pitched well. That tells the larger story of the Cubs' season and their sputtering, unreliable offense. Put Steele on the Los Angeles Dodgers and he's probably a 10-win pitcher. Steele has received very little run support and just has to keep doing his thing. Everything else is outside his control.
Last Start: Tuesday, July 30 vs the Cincinnati Reds: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 BB, 7 K
2024 Home Splits: 8 starts, 47 1/3 IP, 43 H, 25 R, 3 HR, 16 BB, 44 K
Here are the Cardinals-Cubs MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Cubs Odds
St Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: +126
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -148
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How to Watch Cardinals vs. Cubs
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/4:10 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Miles Mikolas' season-long numbers aren't as good as Justin Steele's, but the Cardinals are a better hitting team than the Cubs and can scratch out a win in a low-scoring game, with Mikolas limiting Chicago's offense.
Why The Cubs Will Cover The Spread/Win
Justin Steele is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup. He can dominate and enable the Cubs to win a 3-1 or 4-2 ballgame.
Final Cardinals-Cubs Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to the Cubs, but this series has been very close and hard to predict. We think you should pass.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Cardinals-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Cubs -1.5
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