Patrick Mahomes: Fantasy Football Outlook For The 2021 NFL Season With Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are set up for yet another big year. This franchise works wonders for fantasy football, as Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill produce elite fantasy football numbers. Mahomes is one of the best players in the league and it translates to the fantasy world as well. With a majority of the same offensive weapons around him and an improved offensive line, we should see big things from the Chiefs’ quarterback once again.
Although the Chiefs are setup up with an elite offense, it is notable the front office failed to acquire an exciting new receiver this offseason. Kansas City targeted a handful of big-name receivers, but they all chose to either re-sign with their current team or sign elsewhere. Even so, the Chiefs still have one of the best offenses in the league.
Patrick Mahomes has been hard at work and has his eyes set on winning a second Super Bowl. He’ll have to be at the top of his game to achieve that goal, which should please fantasy players as well. When Patrick Mahomes is dominating, he’s racking up points for fantasy, which can help you win your leagues.
2020 Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Statistics
Last year, Patrick Mahomes played as one of the most consistent fantasy options in football. He ended the year with 4,740 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 308 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. Based on ESPN’s scoring format, those stats led Mahomes to scoring 374.4 fantasy points on the year, averaging 25 points per game. Those numbers had Mahomes finish as the QB4 on the year, with only Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Kyler Murray ahead of him.
Patrick Mahomes was easily one of the most consistent fantasy options at the quarterback position last year. He’s a guaranteed starter every week and having him on your team was a huge advantage. Even so, many selected Mahomes as the top quarterback last year, as he was ranked as the QB1 heading into the 2020 season. There is an argument to be made that Mahomes fell short of expectations. However, a top-four finish in fantasy football is nothing to brush aside.
The Chiefs’ offense allows Mahomes to play freely and he has an uncanny ability to find the open man often. Travis Kelce proved to be a dominant force in the fantasy world, and Tyreek Hill is a YAC monster. They both give Mahomes that extra boost he needed to achieve a top-four finish in 2020. Now, heading into the 2021 NFL season, Patrick Mahomes and company look to produce similar numbers.
2021 Fantasy Projections
ESPN’s projections have Patrick Mahomes ending up with about the same amount of fantasy points as last year. They have him finishing the season with 4,953 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 328 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. Those stats equate to 371.93 fantasy points on the year. That’s about three fewer points than he scored in 2020, so ESPN believes Mahomes will continue playing at an elite and consistent level.
What’s notable in that stat line is ESPN’s projection on Mahomes’ interceptions. They have him throwing 10 picks this year, however, Mahomes has only thrown double-digit interceptions once in his career. That was in 2018 when he first took over as the Chiefs starting quarterback.
There is reason to believe that Mahomes throws less than 10 interceptions on the year, as he’s only thrown 11 in the last two years. Mahomes may throw more picks this year. However, based on his production in 2019 and 2020, it’s hard to believe he would suddenly turn the ball over at a higher rate. For that reason, ESPN might be lowballing Mahomes’s projections by about 10 fantasy points.
Rank at Position
According to ESPN’s rankings, they have Mahomes listed as the QB2, with Josh Allen being the only quarterback projected to score more points. However, Mahomes is consistently being taken as the first quarterback off the board when it comes to fantasy drafts. In fact, his current ADP on ESPN is 27, meaning he’s being selected between rounds 3-5, depending on how many teams are in your league.
A third-round selection is a steep price to pay for a quarterback, especially in single QB leagues. For SuperFlex he’s typically the number one overall selection and is the bonafide number one quarterback in dynasty leagues. Even so, quarterback isn’t as important in single QB leagues, as you can wait until the later rounds and still select a top fantasy producer.
With that said, Mahomes is one of the most consistent fantasy options in the game. When it comes to your fantasy drafts, you can select Mahomes and know he’ll give you at least 20 points every week. Although that’s true, it’s never a good idea to reach for a player. In single QB leagues, round four seems like a fair price to pay to select Patrick Mahomes, but if he somehow falls to you in round five, take him. That is incredible value for one of the best players in the league.